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000
FNUS28 KWNS 122214
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 141200Z - 201200Z

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FLANKING
TROUGHS OVER THE WRN AND ERN CONUS. ON D3/FRI...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH
PROGRESSES SEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERALL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
ON D4/SAT AS THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE CREST
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE WRN
CONUS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STARTING D7/TUE BUT NO AREAS WILL BE
DELINEATED UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL...IMPROVES.

...D3/FRI: WRN NM...SRN ROCKIES...
WEAK UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER W TX ON D3/WED WITH
AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
NM. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PW GRADIENT ACROSS NM WITH VALUES OF
0.45 INCH ACROSS NW NM INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS SE NM.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE /CENTERED OVER ERN TX AND
WRN AR/...THE WEAK UPPER LOW...AND THE EXITING CNTRL ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NM. AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR DRY TSTMS IS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SRN ROCKIES WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
WELL-MIXED AND PW VALUES RANGE FROM 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE IS TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL AREA BUT A MARGINAL
RISK EXISTS.

...D3/FRI: NW NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN KS...SE CO..
WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AMIDST A
DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE...THE BEST METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH
MOSTLY MOIST FUELS ACROSS WRN KS...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.

...D4/SAT: WRN/SRN NV...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL CA AND INTO THE WRN
GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING A MODEST INCREASE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. RESULTANT INCREASE IN SWLY
SURFACE WINDS WITHIN A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SOME SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY
PRECLUDES CRITICAL ISSUANCE ATTM.

..MOSIER.. 06/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...