National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDTX 150956
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
556 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect dry conditions today into Tuesday.

- Showers are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is a
  chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...

Presence of mid-level cloud based at 10.0 kft agl is noted on
satellite this morning, but its eastward trajectory leads to
clearing skies in the next couple of hours. Building high pressure
ensures VFR conditions through the period. Light northwest flow
prevails today with winds holding aob 10 knots. Could see the lake
breeze shift winds at DET/DTW and MBS to the northeast early this
evening, followed by a broader veering trend tonight as the high
pressure center drifts east. Next system is still well upstream, but
initial indications of a pattern shift arrive tonight as intervals of
mid and high cloud stream overhead.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

DISCUSSION...

A ridge of surface high pressure will maintain mostly sunny skies
today and tonight before shifting east and northeast into Tuesday as
a warm front in advance of maturing low pressure over the central
plains lifts into the region. With plenty of sunshine today, high
temperatures will reach the mid/upper 60s in most locations with
temperatures closer to 60 over parts of the Thumb where there will
be some influence of colder Lake Huron waters. Mild weather will
continue into Tuesday as well, but with temperatures generally in
the 60 to 65 degree range as cloud cover increases throughout the
day. Lower to mid 50s will be prevalent over the Thumb and also
immediately west of Saginaw Bay as easterly flow increasing to the
north of the approaching warm front.

There will be small shower chances beginning Tuesday afternoon, but
most activity will hold off until evening and overnight as the warm
front encroaches on the area. Categorical pops then persist on into
Wednesday as the warm front lifts north through the area during the
first part of the day and then a cold front pivots east into the
region around the remains of low pressure as its center tracks into
northern Lake MI and northern lower MI. A rather tight temperature
gradient will set up Wednesday as easterly flow over the northern
forecast area maintain lower/mid 50s highs for the Thumb while the
warm sector arrives over southern areas fairly early in the day and
allows temperatures to climb into the lower 70s along/south of I-94.

Showers will end Wednesday night as the low/surface trough continue
east and drier westerly flow ensues. Relatively mild conditions will
persist into Thursday with high temperatures generally in the lower
60s. Late in the week, a large polar upper low will wobble through
southern Canada and eventually bring a broad upper level trough to
the Great Lakes into the weekend.

A cold front will bring minor rain chances Thursday night into
Friday as this system shifts into the eastern half of Canada. Dry
weather is then expected by the weekend as a large high pressure
system builds into the area behind this low pressure system. High
temperatures will range mainly in the lower to mid 50s Saturday and
Sunday (with upper 40s possible in spots) with some frosty mornings
possible late in the weekend/early next week as low temperatures dip
into the lower to mid 30s by the end of this 7 day forecast period.

MARINE...

Light winds persist today before easterly winds begin to ramp on
Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system moving into the
Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. A period of easterly gales is
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly over the northern half
of Lake Huron.

A good deal of warm air will be spreading in, supporting neutral to
stable low level profiles toward the end of the day on Wednesday.
Thus, confidence in gales is just moderate, and still a bit too far
out to issue watch. An extended period of widespread showers late
Tuesday night through Wednesday Night, along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Another weak cold front to swing through to end the work week, with
just light to moderate winds to follow the passage for the Weekend.

HYDROLOGY...

A warm front will lift into the region late Tuesday night into
Wednesday in advance of a strong low pressure over the midwest.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this front
with the greatest coverage occurring overnight Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Wednesday evening as this low tracks through lower Michigan and
forces a cold front through the area. Total rainfall is forecast to
reach one inch in many locations. While significant flooding is not
expected at this time, expect minor flooding in prone urban and poor
drainage areas and notable rises in area rivers.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....DG


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.