687
FNUS73 KDTX 010839 AAA
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Graham Lake Fenn...UPDATED
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
439 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Breezy and warm today with sustained southwest winds
increasing to near 20 mph this afternoon. Gusts could approach 40
mph at times, mainly as a cold front crosses through with limited
rain development. Minimum RHs drop into into the mid 30s today
suggesting some elevated fire concerns, mainly for areas that
missed out on heavier rainfall over the past few days.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    sprinkles early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...1204).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........61  60  53  43  35  21
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW
TEMP............68  71  73  74  75  74
RH..............54  52  49  43  39  37
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.10  12  13  13  13  13
EYE LVL WND GST.19  20  21  21  21  21
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.7 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.1
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....454 859 1385138513551273

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 26 mph...decreasing to 10 to 15 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...52)...decreasing to poor (MIN...33)
                   after 3 am.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........16     22     22     26     38     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............73     67     61     56     54     51
RH..............37     42     52     62     67     72
EYE LVL WND DIR.W      W      W      W      W      NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.12     10     6      6      6      5
EYE LVL WND GST.20     18     14     13     12     10
MIX HGT (KFT)...4600   900    700    500    500    400
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      4      4
SMOKE DISPER....1047   131    87     65     61     43

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 5 mph...becoming east 5
                    to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 10 mph...becoming south around 7 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then becoming
                    southeast 7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Fair (MAX...177).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........38        32        34        39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............50        54        63        69
RH..............76        68        53        46
EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 4      N 5       NE 5      E 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..10        8         7         8
MIX HGT (FT)....500       1200      2600      3300
HAINES INDEX....4         4         4         4
SMOKE DISPER....43        75        159       200

$$
Forecaster...Kacan
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412825.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov