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000
ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday
morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential
will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong
(EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be
particularly damaging.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the
day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of
the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the
lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70
kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday
morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt
southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70,
aiding both shear and moisture advection.

At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine
Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the
evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN
by 12Z Thursday.

During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend
northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS.
Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front
early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles
downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress
east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary
tornado threat possible.

...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle...
Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of
LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich
low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and
deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging
bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH
gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado
risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any
existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging
winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly
on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries.
Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also
support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection
precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries.

...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight...
Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight,
from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps
southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and
tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible
antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization.
Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will
develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells
and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible
given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2024

$$