Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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906 FXUS63 KEAX 071707 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1207 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds could gust to near 30 mph late this afternoon. - Conditional storm/ severe weather threat Wednesday. If storms can develop, large hail and gusty winds will be the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Upper low over western South Dakota is expected to remain stationary for the next 24 hours. Counter-clockwise flow around the low support unidirectional flow from the southwest across the region. Mixing should lead to the development of gusty winds this afternoon, which may approach 30 mph after 19Z as stronger winds aloft mix towards the surface. The gusts should rapidly subside with sunset. With mostly clear skies and southwest flow, have sided with forecast highs near 75 percentile of model guidance. Convection chances on Wednesday are conditional on moisture return near 700 mb. Steep lapse rates from 700-500 mb in excess of 8 C/km in combination with speed and directional shear will be able to support the potential for large hail. NAM and GFS are widely different for Wednesday, with the NAM suggesting significant moisture return while the GFS keeps convection chances to the southeast. HRRR shows the potential for elevated convection Wednesday morning east of I-35, and the potential for a more surface based storm in the late afternoon hours developing immediately ahead of cold front moving across Iowa Wednesday afternoon. As the upper low breaks down Wednesday night into Thursday and shifts east drier northerly flow develops keeping high temperatures at or below normal through Saturday. Warmer conditions develop Sunday into Monday as low level flow turns more west-southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the pd as clouds associated with last night`s squall line continue to move east. Winds will be out of the SW at 5-10kts, possibly gusting over 20kts through the afternoon hours. Winds will ease in the early evening hours, transitioning to the SE around 04Z and remaining that way into Wednesday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Hayes/73