514
FXUS63 KEAX 030903
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into
  Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Monday evening
  and Monday night. Strong to severe storms are possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a
500 mb low and associated troughing over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Missouri and
Kansas remain generally within west southwesterly flow aloft
south of the primary 500 mb jet streak rounding the base of the
northern stream trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary
that was associated with yesterday`s convection continues to
exit to the east, with surface high pressure building in behind
it. Current conditions across the county warning area are
defined by temperatures primarily in the 50s with light
northerly winds. It should be a relatively pleasant day today
with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s with lower
humidity and an easterly breeze.

By tonight, a quick moving shortwave trough descends out of the
Intermountain West and into the Plains, linking up with the
aforementioned mid level low and troughing already present over
the Upper Midwest, and sends another cold front toward the
region. Convection allowing models (CAMs) suggest that
convection should initiate along and ahead of the front over
central Nebraska by this evening, with a line or broken line of
showers and storms entering into NW Missouri and NE Kansas by
around 3 to 4 am tomorrow morning. These storms should continue
to move west to east with the front through the morning hours,
exiting the region to the east by noon. The SPC HREF suggests up
to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with along with around 30 to 35
knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, so it is possible that a few
storms could be strong to marginally severe. SPC concurs with
this, as they have the region highlighted within a marginal risk
for severe storms for tonight into Saturday morning`s convective
activity. Additionally, these storms could bring another 0.5 to
0.75" of rain to the region, with locally higher amounts
possible.

The precise timing of the cold front will largely impact
Saturday`s high temperatures. As of now, the forecast highs
range from as cold as the mid 60s over NW Missouri to as warm as
the mid 70s toward mid Missouri where the cold front is progged
to arrive later in the day. Cooler temperatures and some cloud
cover should linger into Sunday. Showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two will be possible on Sunday, primarily south
of Interstate 70, as a subtle shortwave trough develops over the
Southern Plains and a stationary boundary near the MO/AR border
begins to lift northward as a warm front.

As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across
the Southern Rockies and into the Plains, undergoing lee
cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted.
Differences continue with how the GFS and ECMWF handle the
system, which will impact overall storm timing and specific
severe weather hazards, but showers and thunderstorms are likely
Monday evening/night, with strong to severe thunderstorms in
play given mid 60s dewpoints, moderate instability, and
sufficient deep layer shear. Additionally, locally moderate
rainfall will once again be possible, and with the antecedent
wet conditions, this could yield more flash and river flooding
concerns.

Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation lingers
Tuesday into Thursday as models suggest a closed mid level low
remaining over the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow aloft
over Missouri and Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely
for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few
degrees for Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers have exited the terminals to the east, leaving
VFR conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. Outside
of some patchy fog briefly lowering VSBYs to MVFR at STJ early
Friday morning, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Light northerly winds will become easterly by mid Friday
morning, increasing slightly toward 9 to 10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW