238
FXUS64 KEPZ 080537
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1137 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Warm and breezy to windy conditions last through Wednesday with
heightened fire weather. Somewhat lighter winds are expected for
the rest of the period other than breezy east winds behind
Friday`s backdoor cold front. Slight rain chances return for
northeastern areas on Saturday ahead of a disturbance.
Temperatures remain near normal into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Breezy and extremely dry conditions are in place this afternoon,
making for critical fire weather. Blowing dust is a low concern
into the early evening with minor visibility reductions possible
in El Paso and points east early this evening.

One last dry and very breezy day is expected for tomorrow. Winds
of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph from the west are generally
forecast for Wed afternoon, so very similar to Tuesday. Patchy
blowing dust has been added to the grids for the afternoon and
evening tomorrow in far west TX based on latest dust model
guidance. Again, only minor VIS reductions (5 miles) are
possible in El Paso and into northern Hudspeth county.

On Thursday, a big chunk of the northern Rockies` low breaks off
and retrogrades into the Great Basin as a result of a Rex block
over the PacNW. Our deep zonal flow weakens, but breezy winds
(15-20mph) linger. A backdoor front accompanies the upper low as
our winds shift easterly (15-25 mph) Thurs night, bringing in
some moisture like what we saw on Saturday. However, dew points
only reach the 30s, creeping into the 40s for eastern areas on
Saturday. A few showers and storms may develop in the Sacs Sat PM
downstream of the upper low which may progress into NM. Rain
chances remain very low for the lowlands regardless of how this
upper low acts into next week within a weak flow pattern. A quasi-
monsoon pattern may set up early in the week with lingering
moisture and potential weak ridging nearby. Isolated convection
could develop each afternoon as a result over the mountains.
Breezy afternoons (10-20 mph) should continue into early next
week. Temperatures will be near average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

VMC through forecast period under west flow at all flight
levels. Dry conditions leaving skies clear through Wednesday.
Surface winds generally 250-280 at 10-15 knots overnight. Some
low-level wind shear with mountaintop winds (FL070) around 30
knots. Winds increase again Wednesday afternoon, 240-270 at 15 to
25 knots. Peak gusts of 35 knots at local terminals. Will need to
monitor for blowing dust again mid-afternoon but no major
visibility restrictions are anticipated at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Fire weather concerns remain moderate to high through Wednesday
with very breezy winds and dry air continuing. The rest of today
will be extremely dry in some places (near 5% RH) as westerly
winds persist. For Wednesday, RFTIs of 3-6 (near critical to
critical) are forecast, so it`s a lower end red flag day. Winds
will be nearly identical to Tuesday but with slightly higher
humidities. Winds subside a bit from Thursday onward but remaining
on the breezy side.

Some moisture moves in from the east Friday morning behind a
backdoor cold front. A disturbance brings a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the Sacramentos on Saturday, otherwise mainly
dry conditions persist. Mostly elevated fire danger lingers into
the weekend as the surface moisture is flushed out. Temperatures
will be near or above average through the period as fuels moisten
up into the weekend due to the added moisture.

Min RHs range from 5-15% through Thursday, then 15-35% east of the
Rio Grande Friday and Saturday. Vent rates will be mostly
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  62  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  86  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  60  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    50  83  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              45  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  87  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             58  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  80  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  85  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  73  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  43  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                46  82  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   43  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    46  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               46  75  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  77  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   49  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  84  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           51  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird