National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
AXUS74 KEPZ 192129 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
320 PM APR 19 2013

...SEVERE DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO EXCEPT FOR EXTREME CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SIERRA
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OTERO COUNTY. MODERATE
DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF DONA ANA AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LUNA COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT ALSO PREVAILS
OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WESTERN HALF OF HUDPSTEH COUNTY WITH
SEVERE DROUGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF HUDSPETH COUNTY...




SYNOPSIS...
AS OF APRIL 15 2013 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE FAVORED
INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH THE FALL OF 2013.

THE EL PASO AREA AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 57% OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO DATE FOR 2013. SINCE THE START OF
2010 EL PASO HAS LOST AROUND 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO LOOSING AROUND ONE AND
QUARTER YEAR`S WORTH OF RAINFALL.
FOR THE PAST 180 DAYS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 50% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE DRYNESS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO LOWER THE THRESHOLDS FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO INITIATE BLOWING DUST EVENTS.

SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF APRIL 1 IN OUR AREA
SHOW MOSTLY 20% TO 50% CAPACITY VALUES. PREDICTED SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALIES FOR APRIL ARE RUNNING AROUND 80 MM BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAGGED AVERAGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH JULY 2013 IS FOR
AROUND -40 MM OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MAR FOR A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ T  INCHES
LAS CRUCES..................... 0  STATE UNIV
SANTA TERESA .................. 0  KEPZ
DEMING......................... .19
ANIMAS......................... .16
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... .98
HACHITA........................ .13
FAYWOOD........................ .23
WINSTON........................ .38
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... .06
TULAROSA....................... M
CLOUDCROFT..................... 1.24



SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST THE PRESENT
DROUGHT CATEGORIES OVER OUR AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH JULY 31
2013.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM NOW THROUGH
NOVEMBER 2013 WHICH WOULD IMPLY A SUBDUED SUMMER MONSOON AT BEST AT
THIS TIME. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE FORECAST.



IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN