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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 251821
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Rx...NMSDC USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1221 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire conditions are expected to linger into Friday as
some moisture moves into the area. Breezy to windy conditions
from the west-southwest continue for Friday and Saturday as
another system arrives for Saturday. This next disturbance brings
a chance of rain and snow showers due to cooler air with lower
fire danger. Warming and drying conditions are expected for early
next week.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph shifting to the southwest 16 to 20 mph with
                    gusts to around 38 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48500 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (149000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (233700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........6      6      3      8      8      10
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............34     42     51     58     61     63
RH..............75     57     36     24     22     22
20 ft wind......W 6    W 8    SW 11  SW 16  SW 16  SW 20
20 ft wind gust.12     15     20     30     30     35
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1900   4900   5900   6400   7400
Transport wind..W 10   W 14   W 20   W 25   SW 30  SW 35
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      40     109    149    204    234
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 37
                    mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 29 mph decreasing to 19 to 21
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (223700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (14000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........17     17     23     38     38     58
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............56     51     46     42     40     37
RH..............23     29     40     53     62     72
20 ft wind......SW 20  SW 20  SW 16  SW 14  SW 14  SW 13
20 ft wind gust.37     37     30     26     26     23
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   2000   800    800    1200   1200
Transport wind..SW 29  SW 29  SW 19  SW 19  SW 21  SW 21
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..224    94     14     14     23     23
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 39
                    mph increasing to 41 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (107000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (198200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........58        57        57        57
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSN      RNSN      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30        30        30        30
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............35        39        46        49
RH..............78        62        38        33
20 FT wind......SW 15G31  SW 19G37  SW 20G39  W 21G41
Mix hgt (ft)....2300      4300      6800      7100
Transport wind..SW 24     SW 24     W 30      W 32
Haines index....2         3         2         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37        107       182       198
Ventrate Cat....POOR      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower
60s. West winds around 12 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 8 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
South winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Pedro Valenzuela
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412462.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firent.gov