Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
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FNUS74 KEWX 150049
FWSEWX
Spot Forecast for Zorro Fire...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
749 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 CDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire weather conditions are occurring as sustained winds
of 10-15 MPH are gusting up to 25 MPH and RH values have dropped
into the upper teens. A full recovery of the morning dew point is
not quite expected as the mid morning maximum dew point is
forecast to top out at near 63 degrees before mixing out into the
dry air mass by midday. The RH max is also expected to top out at
63 before the percentages plummet to below 35 percent by noon and
to around 23 percent for an afternoon minimum. While the RH
minimum for tomorrow looks safe to stay above 20 percent, the wind
forecast is expected to be even more gusty with sustained winds up
to 20 mph and gust to near 30 mph. This means another afternoon of
elevated fire weather conditions. No rain is forecast through
around 6 PM Wednesday. However isolated strong storms are possible
in the early evening with gusty and erratic storm outflows
possible from the high heat environment.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8 7 9 7 21 14 12 18 23 44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............93 88 85 83 82 79 78 76 74 72
RH..............23 28 33 36 38 44 48 56 59 64
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..13 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 9
20 FT wind gust.21 21 21 21 24 24 22 22 18 15
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 9
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.20 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 13
Haines index....6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 32
mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 32
mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 20 mph shifting to the south 22
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50 47 35 44 31 33 35 37 43 48 54 56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............71 70 72 76 82 86 90 94 96 97 98 98
RH..............66 67 67 62 53 45 38 31 28 26 25 25
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..9 9 10 12 14 15 17 18 20 21 21 21
20 FT wind gust.14 14 15 18 21 23 26 29 31 32 31 32
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 9 11 13 14 16 17 19 19 19 19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.6 4.3 5.1 5.5 6.3 6.6 6.0
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S SE
Transp wind spd.12 12 13 15 17 20 22 24 25 25 24 24
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................7 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1900, then 1-8 strikes until
0100, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph
in the evening and overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph
in the evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57 59 51 44 36 40 45 49 59 68 78 74
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............97 96 92 87 85 83 81 80 79 78 77 77
RH..............26 27 32 39 43 47 52 56 61 67 74 77
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..21 20 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12
20 FT wind gust.33 31 30 30 31 31 30 28 25 24 22 20
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.13 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.20 19 18 18 19 19 18 17 15 14 13 12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 4.1 3.3 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.24 23 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 20 18 18
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71 67 73 78 84 75 66 57 49 40 32 33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............77 77 77 78 79 82 86 89 92 95 96 97
RH..............80 82 84 85 84 79 70 61 52 45 40 36
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.18 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.1 3.6 4.1 5.0 5.5 5.1
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE S S S S S SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.17 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 10 12 12
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
$$
Forecaster...18
Requested by...Belinda Jackson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414222.0/EWX
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL csdispatch@tfs.tamu.edu