284
FXUS65 KFGZ 020413
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
913 PM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
end of the week. More unsettled weather and strong winds will
impact the area this weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Virga was witnessed in several parts of northern
Arizona this afternoon. Despite the relatively high clouds bases,
a few very lucky locations along and north of I-40 even felt some
light rain and drizzle. The forecast remains on point with no
significant updates needed. Mostly clear skies this evening with
decreasing cloud cover expected overnight. Temperatures will trend
upwards the next few days, remaining near to 5 degrees above
seasonal averages. Winds will also climb each afternoon with
strong winds expected by the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /445 PM MST/...A few light showers have popped
up this afternoon over far northern AZ with the trough passing to
our north - these should quickly dissipate this evening, with
fair skies and seasonably cool temperatures expected overnight.

With the passage of this trough, expect generally featureless
zonal flow across the Southwest through the rest of the week as a
deep trough slowly drops into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures
through Friday will be near to, or slightly above normal with
seasonal afternoon breezes.

Over the weekend, the aforementioned NW trough will aggressively
dig southeast through northern California and into the Great
Basin. The trough will be far enough south to bring strong winds
to the area, but not deep enough for significant precipitation in
Arizona. Models have continued to merge into a solution that will
favor wind gusts of 25-35 mph on Saturday afternoon, and gusts in
excess of 50 mph on Sunday over and downwind of the higher
terrain. The meteorological conditions will be consistent with
near critical fire weather conditions over east and northeast AZ
this weekend - something to watch closely as our finer fuels
continue to dry this week.

Relatively cool, fair weather will return to Arizona next week as
dry westerly flow once again re-asserts itself across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 02/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions
continue under SCT afternoon, mid-level clouds. W-SW surface
winds will begin to weaken to less than 10 kts after 02Z. Variable
winds overnight will return to W-SW by 17Z with gusts generally
below 20 kts from 19Z onward.

OUTLOOK...Friday 03/00Z through Sunday 05/00Z...VFR conditions
persist through Saturday with minimal cloud cover. Afternoon
W-SW winds at 10-15 kts Thursday and Friday will shift to more
S-SW and strengthen Saturday to 15-20 kts, gusting near 30 kts in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Warm and dry as minimum
humidity decreases to 10 to 15% Thursday. RH will be slightly higher
Friday. West-southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph each afternoon,
resulting in good to excellent ventilation.

Saturday through Monday...Warm, windy afternoons continue Saturday
with minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. Southwest winds increase,
peaking Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. A few showers
are possible near the Utah/Arizona border on Sunday. Despite RH
values increasing slightly Sunday, areas of critical fire weather
conditions are likely, especially for the Little Colorado River
Valley and Navajo Nation. Winds decrease Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/BAK
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff