620
FXUS65 KFGZ 300527
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 PM MST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the
week with breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures will generally
remain near normal. Another low pressure system could affect
northern Arizona this weekend, with wind gusts up to 35-45 mph
possible by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s a mostly clear/calm evening across northern
Arizona, with a few high clouds across Apache County. Winds have
mostly died down, minus a few breezes along higher terrain.
Another day of above-normal temperatures is in store for tomorrow
along with mostly sunny skies and breezy afternoon winds. Nice,
spring-like weather is expected to continue through much of the
week, with little fluctuation as we move toward the weekend. The
previous forecast/discussion remains on track, so no updates were
made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...Dry and quasi-zonal flow will continue over the
southwestern U.S. through the week. Southwesterly wind gusts up to
15-25 mph will be possible each afternoon through the end of the
week. Temperatures will generally remain near normal.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength and
evolution of the next system forecast to affect northern Arizona
Sunday. The operational GFS is by far the most aggressive with
this system, progging the low to strengthen as it digs into the
southern California coast. The operational ECMWF is more mellow
with this system, keeping it an open wave as it passes harmlessly
to the north. The ensemble mean solution also keeps this low
relatively weaker than the operational GFS, so will follow with
the ensemble mean for now. Regardless, wind gusts should kick up
into the 35-45 mph range by Sunday afternoon with continued dry
conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/06Z through Wednesday 01/06Z...VFR
conditions with light and variable winds through 18Z, then SW
winds increase to 10-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/06Z through Friday 03/06Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds 15-25 kts on Wednesday, becoming northerly 10-25 kts
on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry conditions with
warming temperatures continue through Wednesday. Breezy southwest
winds 10-20 mph Tuesday, increasing to 30-40 mph on Wednesday.
Minimum RH values between 10-20% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue. Slightly cooler
temperatures Thursday, then warming Friday and Saturday. Northeast
winds Thursday morning becoming west in the afternoon. Southwest
winds 15-25 mph on Friday and Saturday with daily minimum RH
values around 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/TM
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff