817
FXUS65 KFGZ 010352
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather potentially
returns later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...9 PM - Clear skies continue this evening with winds
dropping off to 10 mph or less at most locations. Latest forecasts
are in good shape and no updates will be needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /501 PM MST/...Clear skies, light winds, and
near average low temperatures are expected tonight.

A shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin on Wednesday
will bring increasing southwest winds, a few degrees of cooling,
and some high clouds to the area. Heights and temperatures rebound
slightly on Thursday as morning winds become northeast...then
return from the southwest in the afternoon. Continued warming and
increasing southwest winds are expected on Friday.

By Friday afternoon, both the EC and GFS have been consistent and
in good agreement on the formation of a large and strong area of
low pressure forming off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Both models
show this low moving southeast to a position off the southwest
Oregon Coast by Saturday afternoon...and then diverge on the
solution. The EC then takes the low to the east and across central
Montana by Monday. The GFS continues to move the low southeastward
and over northern Arizona late Sunday into Monday. The NBM leans
heavily on the EC solution with POPs...and little if any precipitation
for Arizona. At this point, the forecast calls for cooler and
windier conditions this weekend and into Monday. Stay tuned to see
how this system develops and if the potential for precipitation
increases.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 01/00Z through Thursday 02/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Wind speeds will decrease after 01Z, but winds will
increase again after 16Z Wednesday becoming southwest 10-20 kts
gusting 20-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/00Z through Saturday 04/00Z...VFR conditions
will persist with afternoon winds from the southwest gusting 15-20
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Look for dry conditions and
near average temperatures. Afternoon southwest winds 10-20 mph
gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday, decreasing to southwest 10-15 mph
gusting up to 20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 10-20%
each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions continue. Southwest wind
gusts 10-20 mph are forecast for Friday, increasing to 20-30 mph
Saturday. During this time, minimum RH values will be around 10-20%.
On Sunday, a passing low pressure system will bring stronger
southwest winds, with a 60-90% chance of wind gusts above 40 mph.
While this system will likely bring little to no rainfall,
humidity may also increase, primarily along and south of the
Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/MAS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff