Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 222344
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Low cloud cover wrapping around the western flank of a departing
low pressure system will remain in place overnight into tomorrow
morning, but most areas have at least seen a scattering of the
low deck this afternoon allowing for a few hours of filtered
sunshine. The result has been a rather pleasant spring afternoon
with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with the exception of
our northeastern zones which remain socked in with low stratus
which has held highs in the upper 50s. Some very light rain also
lingers across portions of East Texas as of 6 PM, but will vacate
the forecast area early this evening.

A secondary frontal push will arrive overnight, with drier and
cooler low-level air accompanying it. Most areas will begin
Saturday morning with steadily clearing skies and temperatures in
the 40s. However, a potent upper trough will dig towards the area
during the daytime causing strong southerly flow to resume. We`ll
see an increase in high cloud cover ahead of this feature, as
well as a slow increase in low clouds later in the day as Gulf
moisture readily returns northward. Afternoon highs should be
similar to today`s readings, mostly in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Over Saturday night into Sunday, height falls will begin to spread
over the Central Plains in response to an approaching upper
trough. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will begin in response,
tightening the surface pressure gradient and increasing wind
speeds across North and Central Texas. Wind speeds will reach
their maximum for areas near and west of I-35 in the late morning
and early afternoon hours, with speeds around 15-25 mph gusting to
near 40 mph. This currently reaches Wind Advisory criteria, and
if this forecast trend continues into the weekend, an advisory
will be needed for Sunday. Over the day, the lead shortwave will
eject to the northeast, ushering the surface low and attendant
Pacific Front/Dryline feature eastward. While chances for isolated
morning/afternoon showers are possible across North Texas, the
bulk of activity is expected later.

The lead shortwave will continue northeast, sending the dryline
across North and Central Texas Sunday night into Monday morning.
During this time, showers and storms are expected to form along the
boundary and move eastward. Guidance continues to show enough shear
and instability to allow for strong to marginally severe storms
capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. However, the exact
severe threat on Sunday continues to remain conditional on just
how much we are able to destabilize that day. As of this forecast
issuance, the greatest severe threat remains to our north across
Oklahoma. By Monday morning, rain chances will have been shunted
across East Texas and portions of eastern Central Texas.
Redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected in these zones Monday
afternoon as increased forcing for ascent spreads over Texas in
response to a trailing shortwave disturbance. Some storms during
this time could become strong with hail and strong winds once
again the main concerns. Another 0.25"-1.00" of most likely
rainfall with isolated higher amounts up to 1.00"-1.50" is
expected over Sunday-Monday mainly across our eastern counties.
This, coupled with recent rainfall, will increase potential for
minor flooding in flood-prone and low-lying spots.

Eventually the true cold front of the system will push south Monday
night into Tuesday, ending the early week rain chances and sending
cooler air into North and Central Texas. Expect morning lows in the
30s/40s and afternoon highs in the 50s/60s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The synoptic wheel will keep turning as the main longwave trough
itself finally crosses the Continental Divide during the middle of
this upcoming week. Portions of North and Central Texas will
observe a low chance of showers and storms on Wednesday as the
apex of the trough moves overhead. Behind the trough, ridging will
build in behind it. Additionally, surface high pressure will be
placed to our east, returning southerly flow and WAA to the
region. All in all, a warm up is expected over the latter half of
next week, with highs generally back in the 70s.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Low cloud cover will continue to stream southward over D10
overnight, mostly between 2-4 kft. While some brief cigs are
possible, coverage should largely remain FEW/SCT, thus have
refrained from carrying a prolonged low ceiling in the TAF during
the overnight period. North winds of 10-15 kts will persist
overnight as a secondary cold front moves through, but they`ll
return to ESE by midday Saturday at lighter speeds. High cloud
cover will be on the increase tomorrow as well, but VFR will
prevail.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  68  56  72  59 /   0   0   0  20  80
Waco                49  69  56  71  58 /   0   0   0   0  70
Paris               43  65  49  67  57 /   5   0   0  10  70
Denton              43  66  54  71  55 /   0   0   0  20  70
McKinney            44  66  53  70  58 /   0   0   0  20  80
Dallas              48  68  56  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  80
Terrell             46  66  54  71  58 /   0   0   0  10  80
Corsicana           50  69  56  73  61 /   0   0   0   5  70
Temple              49  70  55  74  58 /   0   0   0   0  70
Mineral Wells       44  68  54  74  53 /   0   0   0  20  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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