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000
FXUS65 KGGW 190903
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
303 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Much colder than normal and breezy conditions linger today with
isolated snow showers.

2) A warming trend over the weekend will lead to mostly
seasonable temperatures and periodic light rain chances next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

NE Montana remains on the southwest edge of a slowly departing upper
level low pressure system today, supplying enough cold air
advection and instability for isolated wind-driven snow showers.
The Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake has marginal support for
extension through 6pm today as winds and gusts stay near 20 and
30 mph, respectively. Surface high pressure moves in tonight
allowing for winds to diminish and widespread lows in the teens or
lower 20s. Ensembles generally support near to slightly above
normal temperature solutions starting Sunday and throughout the
extended period, along with periodic shortwave disturbances
enhancing wind and precipitation chances.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Slight precipitation chances correlated to isolated snow showers
were added in a collaborative fashion today as shallow
instability is not being represented well in the short term
models. However, amounts will broadly be just a trace to a
dusting. There is high confidence for the warmer temperature trend and
low confidence for placement/timing of measurable rain beyond an
initial weak system Sunday night into Monday.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - VFR

DISCUSSION: Isolated snow showers will continue to drop SE out of
Saskatchewan through mid afternoon along with high confidence for
a period of MVFR stratus ceilings between 12-18Z. West/northwest
winds will continue to gust up to 30 knots today before
diminishing this evening as high pressure moves in and skies
clear.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow