994
FXUS63 KGID 192356
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. The main
  threat area is be to our south, but our northern Kansas
  counties still have some risk for significant winds as one or
  more clusters of storms move through Kansas tonight.

- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday
  afternoon through Monday night, though details on
  timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain.

- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending
  drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the
near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in
northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of
our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will
be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large
hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.

In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest
Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this
activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east
propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds
(75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has
been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area
entirely.

Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push
into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an
overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs
have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.


Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding
coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will
favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong
deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe
threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours
of Tuesday.

A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early
afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty
northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier
conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through
Wednesday.

The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with
continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal
precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day
weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into
June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

LOW confidence TAF cycle given uncertainties with CIGs and VSBYs
due to convection in the region.

Have removed any mention of VCSH or VCTS as it appears any
activity will remain pretty far W/S of the area tonight. While
that is one aspect of the forecast that have come into some
clarity, the late overnight trends for stratus and/or fog have
not. In general, models have been trending towards more stratus
and perhaps even some light fog - neither of which seem
unplausible given a period of lgt (and somewhat variable) low
level flow ahead of a front, and recent rainfall both locally
and upstream to the S. Didn`t feel comfortable carrying a VFR
TAF all night, so leaned towards the IFR stratus as being more
likely than IFR/MVFR VSBY`s, but will have to closely monitor
trends for potential amendments. Appears stratus could linger
into at least mid to late AM as CIGs rise to MVFR, then scatter
out some for the aftn.

Winds will generally remain out of the S this eve, then bec lgt
and vrbl for a time before veering to the SW/W after 06Z, then
NW towards dawn behind a weak front. N-NNE winds around 7-11kt
look to prevail late AM thru the aftn. Confidence on wind is
medium.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies