000
FXUS65 KGJT 271149
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
549 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 6-12 inches of snow expected above 9000 feet through Sunday
  morning.

- Temperatures will remain around 10 degrees below normal today
  and Sunday thanks to cloud cover and continued shower
  activity.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon
  with small hail and gusty winds possible, along with
  additional snow in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Low pressure continues to drift eastward this morning as a center of
low pressure located just east and north of the Four Corners pushes
a series of showers northward through our CWA. Measurable rainfall
has been falling most of the morning around the region. Temperatures
continue to cool and snow showers have been reported at higher
elevations including Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs.
Additional mountain snowfall is expected today and tonight with
Winter Weather Advisories in place for mountain zones above 9000
feet. Ample cloud cover and continued precipitation will keep
temperatures around 10 degrees or more below climatology today.
Afternoon heating will likely get squashed too, as winds shift more
northwest this afternoon in the wake of the frontal passage. A few
stronger snow showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely
develop in the wraparound northwesterly flow this afternoon,
when some of our higher peaks will see 3-4 inches of additional
snow before sunset. Small hail and gusty outflows will remain a
concern this afternoon too. Moisture begins to strip away
tonight as the low lifts onto the Plains, this will curb
precipitation pretty quickly. A few showers will linger over the
Continental Divide heading into daybreak Sunday. Steep lapse
rates behind the front Sunday will lead to another round of
showers and a thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon, when a few
breaks of sunshine destabilize things once again. Gusty
outflows, small hail, and brief downpours will be on the ticket,
as well as more snow showers at the higher elevations along the
Divide. Desert valleys will warm a bit more thanks to more
sunshine Sunday afternoon, but highs will still hang back 5
degrees or more below normal. Shower activity will likely lead
to some quick drops in temperatures too, as turbulent mixing
delivers more cold air to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The shortwave pushes east of the Divide Sunday night, with shower
activity tapering off gradually through the night. Westerly to
northwesterly flow builds in behind this wave, which will promote
some isolated mountain showers or storms on Monday afternoon by
working on residual moisture. Otherwise, a transient ridge passes
overhead on Monday, bringing perhaps the quietest day of the period
and kicking off something of a warming trend for the lower
elevations along and south of I-70, with highs running 5-10 degrees
above normal by Wednesday. Across the northern half of the CWA, look
for clouds and winds to be on the increase starting Monday evening
as a 90-100 knot jet moves in aloft. Multiple disturbances are
progged to ride this jet and clip the northern half of the CWA
starting late Monday and continuing through at least Wednesday.
Drier air moving in will limit the amount of precipitation that
makes it to the ground, with generally less than a tenth of an inch
of QPF expected each afternoon. The increased clouds and showers
through Thursday will keep temperatures near to a few degrees above
normal north of the I-70 corridor.

A lobe of low pressure dropping out of the Pacific Northwest late
Tuesday has the potential to be the next big system for the Great
Basin late in the week. Current guidance tracks this low east
through the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies before
beginning to intensify and dropping south into the Great Basin. The
details remain fuzzy at this point, as model agreement remains poor.
But confidence is growing that widespread precipitation will return
for the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A spring storm will bring mountain snow and scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the region through this TAF period.
Intermittent IFR/ILS breakpoint conditions can be expected as
gusty winds, small hail, and snow present numerous challenges to
aviation today. Thunderstorm activity will taper around sunset,
as will shower activity, but lingering clouds and moisture will
still produce some opportunity for IFR conditions in the
mountains tonight and into Sunday morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ004-009-
     010-012-013-018-019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT