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000
FXUS62 KGSP 271632
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1232 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next
week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic
Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area
on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
western Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday...Dry conditions persist this afternoon
with the thickest cloud cover confined to the SW NC mountains and
extreme NE GA. Passing cirrus and afternoon cumulus are noted
elsewhere. No major changes were needed this update as the forecast
remains on track.

Otherwise, a dirty ridge will continue to dominate the pattern over
the east coast through the near term forecast period. Mid to high
clouds will continue over the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia today thanks to sfc high pressure situated off the Mid-
Atlantic coast leading S/SE`ly flow and allowing for an influx of
Atlantic moisture. Thinner cloud cover will remain in place east of
the mountains through the early afternoon hours. The Blue Ridge
escarpment will be under the gun for continued upslope cloudiness
and perhaps a weak shower or two. Chances for an isolated shower or
two remain too low to introduce PoPs at this time so will maintain a
dry forecast. The increasing insolation will allow for near normal
highs this afternoon, with lows around 5-8 degrees above climo
tonight thanks to increasing cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Saturday: It will continue to heat up to start off
the period as lingering deep layered ridging continues to suppress
any deep convection as temperatures climb into the lower 80s Monday
afternoon.  There should be just enough forcing and convergence
along an approaching weak cool front to support a round of numerous
showers and embedded, mainly garden variety, tstms in the mountains
at some point on Tuesday.  The consensus among the latest model
guidance maintains a response as this feature translates into the
piedmont Tuesday afternoon with another day of lower 80s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2:55 AM EDT Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on Tuesday
with an embedded upper shortwave moving into our area from the west and
helping to flatten the upper ridge. In its wake, the upper ridge will
gradually amplify again as a series of northern-stream upper shortwaves
translates eastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
By the end of the period late next week, the broader upper trof will
dig further southward but remain to our NW. At the sfc, high pressure
will be centered off the Southeast Coast as a weak cold front moves into
our area from the west. Most of the long-range guidance still has this
front moving thru our CWA on Tuesday, with what`s left of the boundary
moving offshore by early Wednesday. We`ll likely get a round of sct to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening, with better
coverage the closer you get to the NC/TN Border. In the front`s wake,
we`ll remain under warm, SLY low-level flow with the sfc high remaining
nearly stationary offshore. This will be similar to a summer-time pattern
with chances for diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday. Towards
the end of the period late next week, a more robust low is progged to
eject out of the Plains and bring a stronger cold front to our region
as the period is ending. Temperatures will remain well-above climatology
thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR CIGs are noted across the SC Upstate
terminals, KCLT, and KHKY as of 1630Z with low to mid-level VFR CIGs
are noted elsewhere. Winds become and remain more SE`ly with a
limited gust potential today as a strong sfc high centers and
broadens off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Outlook: Dry weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system could
bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with
more of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on
Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...AR/SBK
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...AR/SBK