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000
FXUS62 KGSP 200002
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front crosses
the area, with unseasonably warm weather through Saturday. Much
cooler temperatures and widespread light rain is expected Sunday
with drier weather on Monday. Drier and warmer weather will return
to the area Tuesday through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 5:55 PM EDT Friday: Sct convection has developed over our
eastern Upstate zones over the past couple of hours, with one storm
becoming severe over Spartanburg County during the past hour and
producing 1+ inch hail and 45+ kt wind gusts. The latest CAMs con-
tinue to develop pockets of sct convection well into the evening
across our area, with activity subsiding later tonight. With moder-
ate amounts of bulk shear and instability in place, a few additional
strong to svr storms are likely with damaging winds and large hail
being the main threats. I can`t rule out some amount of storm organ-
ization given the shear, but any significant organization appears
unlikely.

Otherwise, convection should diminish/move east of the area later
this evening as the cold front moves out of the area. Mid and high
clouds will linger. Low clouds across the mtns, and possibly an
isolated shower along the TN border, are expected overnight in the
developing moist NW flow. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Some sunshine will be seen Saturday even though mid and high clouds
remain. Guidance disagrees on the development of moist low level
upglide during the afternoon as the cold front stalls just to our
south and an area of low pressure moves east along the front.
Guidance blend keeps the area dry, so have gone that way for now.
Thickness values are lower, so highs should be lower as well. Went
with the guidance blend which has highs near normal for the mtns and
around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. Of course, if the cloudier
or wetter guidance is correct, then lows would end up cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday: Flow aloft starting off the short term period
keeps it almost zonal Saturday night. By Sunday, a weak split trough
breaks off from the central CONUS as a developing low dives toward
the southeast and over the CWA. Meanwhile, near the surface a strong
area of high pressure amplifies eastward, bringing N/NE surface flow
and an in-situ wedge setting up Sunday and into Monday. Both Sunday
and Monday will feel much cooler than the past few days as
temperatures dip well below climo. As the upper low approaches, flow
becomes more SW and brings in a chance for some rainfall across most
of the CWA, but should move out Sunday night. Monday looks to be
drier and temps a tick warmer as the high pressure starts to
deamplify. Overnight temps will be coldest on Monday night. While
temps are not expected to drop below freezing at almost all
locations, frost could be a possibility. Stay tuned. Overall, dreary
Sunday with some rain, cool temps and dry conditions to start off
the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday: By Monday night, the upper low slides off the
coast and guidance from the GFS and EURO show a strong upper low
churning over the Midwest/Canada region. This could bring a weak
boundary through the area Tuesday night, but nothing major is
expected at this point. Once that boundary lifts out of the area,
dry conditions return as a ridge builds back over the eastern CONUS.
As for any fire weather concerns, Tuesday may have some areas in the
Piedmont that reach the 30 percent thresholds for RH, but winds are
expected to remain light. Other than that, temperatures begin to
warm back up through the period. Tuesday night looks to be the
coldest with temps across the mountains, especially at the higher
elevations, hovering near or right above freezing. Frost/freeze
could be an issue, but will continue to monitor. Overall, the
pattern looks quiet, mild, and dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: We`re still seeing some lingering showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of KAVL, KCLT,
and KHKY this evening. As such, I kept VCSH going at KAVL and
KHKY and VCSH with a TEMPO for tsra at KCLT for the first few
hrs of the 00z taf period. Otherwise, the Upstate sites should
remain dry. Any lingering convection should dissipate later to-
night as instability dwindles with mid and high clouds lingering
over the area into the overnight. Still expect MVFR cigs to de-
velop at KAVL overnight. They should eventually sct out and lift
by late morning/early aftn. They could also see some brief MVFR
visby, but confidence is not as high as it is for the lower cigs.
Otherwise, the other terminals should remain VFR for the rest of
the period. Winds should go light and vrb later tonight and even-
tually pick back up from the N to NW by the early aftn tomorrow.
At KAVL, winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru the period with low-
end gusts likely commencing again late tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop on Sunday as a weak low pressure center passes just
south of our area, likely resulting in restrictions for at least
the southern part of our fcst area. Drier conditions return on
Monday and linger into Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT/RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT