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000
FXUS64 KHUN 151115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mid level ridging will build in from the west throughout the day
today. This, coupled with remaining on the western extent of
surface high pressure to our east, will promote one more day of
clear and calm conditions. With mostly clear skies allowing for
abundant sunshine, afternoon temps are forecasted to rise into the
mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tonight, mid level ridging will gradually breakdown as a mid level
trough and associated surface low pressure system currently
located in the Plains pushes east. By Tuesday morning, clear skies
from the beginning of the week will have transitioned to overcast
conditions giving us a glimpse at the gloomy days ahead. As the
low pressure system continues to push east, rain chances are
introduced Tuesday night in NW AL ahead of the front.

Model guidance is again offering very different solutions as the
cold front moves through the area. The frontal passage along with
best rain and thunder chances looks to be Wednesday during the
day. Both the EURO and the NAM favor a more dry solution with low
chances for rain and storms while the GFS maintains a wetter
solution. Currently medium PoPs are in the forecast (30-60%) for
Wednesday during the day with rain chances decreasing by Wednesday
night.

As for severe weather potential, this will likely depend on
several things. If prefrontal showers develop Tuesday night and
persist through Wednesday morning, this would likely limit
destabilization potential and decrease severe storm
chances. Further, models differ on moisture and CAPE amounts
available to trigger storms. Without sufficient CAPE, storms may
be limited in their ability to create and maintain strong
updrafts. Ideally as we get into CAM coverage models will begin to
converge on a solution. However, the potential for a conditional
severe weather threat on Wednesday, in a boom or bust scenario if
you will, may be the reality.

Thursday currently remains dry, with a brief period of mostly
clear skies possible Thursday afternoon as the cold front
continues east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Rain chances return late Thursday night as a secondary cold front
moves through. Low to medium rain and thunder chances will remain
through Friday morning. Medium to low rain chances remain through
the duration of the long term as several short waves ripple NE
along the western extent of the mid level trough. While severe
weather potential with any of these shortwaves is questionable at
this time, thunderstorms producing frequent lighting and gusty
winds look to be possible the entire weekend.

With the passage of the secondary cold front on Friday,
temperatures will take a slight dip through the weekend as
compared to our highs in the 80s this week. Temps look to be
limited to the low 70s and high 60s with Sunday being the cooler
of the two days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the duration
of the TAF period. A mid level cloud deck will move in overnight
tonight bringing in broken to overcast ceilings for the second
half of the TAF period. Ceilings will be well in the VFR range and
are not expected to have an impact on terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RAD