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000
FXUS63 KICT 110803
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler today, warming trend beyond with temperatures near 90
  Sunday.

* Fire danger concerns today and again Saturday through Tuesday
  across central KS, mainly west of I-135.

* Severe storms possible Monday and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A mid/upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley early this
morning is progged to lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes area by tonight. In it`s wake, a strong pressure
gradient will produce gusty northwest winds across the area today.
Time/height X-sections of wind and mixing layer height support gusts
over 40 mph early in the day before diminishing a bit later in the
day. The northerly winds will usher in some cooler air but
seasonable values are still anticipated.

This cooldown will be short-lived as a mid/upper ridge is progged to
build over the central CONUS bringing rising heights and increasing
thickness. This will allow a warming trend across the area from Fri-
Sun with highs climbing into the 80s over the weekend. A few
locations may see highs in the lower 90s.

As we move into early next week, a vigorous mid/upper trough is
progged to move into the Rockies late on Monday. The latest
deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to support an
environment capable of a significant severe event across the Great
Plains. We will continue to message the potential for severe weather
on Monday afternoon and Monday night across much of the forecast
area.

Tue-Wed...The vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to lift northeast
of the area on Tue with a stable post-frontal regime developing
across the area. We expect a continuation of above normal
temperatures and a return to dry weather conditions in the
Tue-Wed period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions thru TAF period.

NNW winds will be increasing across the area this morning.
Breezy conditions will continue throughout much of the day with
gusts upwards of 30-35kts expected before winds diminish this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An active fire weather pattern appears likely through early next
week as gusty winds overlap dry grasses and mild temperatures.
Latest collaboration with local, state, and federal fire partners
reveal sufficient green up for areas east of I-135 to limit the
threat for significant fire spread. Therefore, the primary zone for
dangerous fire conditions will be west of I-135.

Gusty north winds near 40 mph will overlap with relative humidity
values ranging from 15-20 percent to create very high to extreme
fire danger across parts of central/and a sliver of south
central KS this afternoon.

Saturday-Tuesday: A prolonged period of very high to extreme fire
danger is expected as gusty south winds up to 35 mph overlap
afternoon humidity values in the 15-25 percent range. As
previously mentioned, the area of most concern will remain west
of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this
afternoon for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...MWM