737
FXUS62 KILM 031755 RRA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
155 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will continue today. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front approaches
from the west. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with
well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late
portions of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Quiet, warm day currently underway with scattered diurnal
cumulus and intermittent high clouds. Temps will reach upper 80s
away from the coast this afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Still expecting fog development this morning, although
confidence in how much and how dense is lacking. Based on
dewpoints, boundary layer moisture is a little lower than last
night and boundary layer winds are a kt or 2 stronger. There are
also cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Overall the
environment seems less favorable for widespread dense fog, but
still expect to see fog development in the pre-dawn hours,
especially closer to the coast. Fog that does develop will be
quick to dissipate, likely doing so before 8AM.

Bermuda High off the coast and weak shortwave ridge aloft will
offer a glimpse of summer today. Very dry air aloft remains over
the area with precipitable water struggling to hit 1". While
these values aren`t far off climatological values for early May,
the bulk of the moisture is in the lowest 1k ft and above 25k
ft. The RH between 700- 500mb drops into the single digits and a
weak subsidence inversion is evident in forecast soundings.
Once fog and low clouds from this morning dissipate, skies will
be mostly sunny with patches of high cloud moving across the
area at times. Some flat cue is possible along the afternoon sea
breeze, but the region will remain dry.

Late tonight a weak shortwave, bursting with moisture, rides up
the west side of the shortwave ridge. This feature will spread
cloud cover over the forecast area in the evening/overnight and
may have weak, scattered convection just west of the area by 12Z
Sat. Given the abundance of dry air and the relatively weak
nature of this feature think measurable rain before 12Z Sat is
unlikely. Temperatures will run well above climo today and
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low level thicknesses depict a weak cold front stalled across
the NC/SC Piedmont on Saturday. This weak boundary will be the
focus for unsettled weather on Saturday and Sunday.

As ridging pushes offshore, weak vorticity will advect northward
along the western extent of the ridge. This energy, while not
robust, should help to develop showers and storms across the
area on Saturday in conjunction with the existing surface front.

Mid and high level moisture advection across the region will
result in thick cloud cover early in the day. Early cloud cover
will impact instability, which model soundings continue to keep
rather weak. There is some uncertainty in the position of the
front and resulting coverage of showers and storms. Low level
thicknesses are having a hard time depicting the front, even
west of the mountains, therefore there is a question as to how
far east the front will move. For now, I have kept PoPs fairly
high with multiple potential forcing mechanisms and increasing
moisture depth, even in weak instability.

Developing sea breeze along the coast and poor low level
saturation on the western edge of a ridge should keep coastal
areas mostly dry on Saturday. With a potential surface front
near the I-95 corridor, PoPs increase rapidly as you head
inland. Temperatures generally in the lower 80s due to the
increased cloud cover.

Shortwaves on the western extent of the ridge will start to push
eastward overnight with showers and a few remnant storms
approaching the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 60s.

A similar day on Sunday, albeit with better saturation and
resulting instability, particularly along the coast. High
temperatures should still reach the lower 80s. Developing sea
breeze will increase shower chances. Less cloud cover overnight
with similar morning lows; mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Maintaining shower and storm chances for Monday. This is
especially true along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by
increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night
into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast
overnight.

Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer
temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon
storms are possible, typical of a diurnal warm-season pattern.
High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of
a warming trend through Thursday.

Southeastern US ridge amplifies on Wednesday and Thursday,
bringing high temperatures well above normal. Lower 90s are
expected each day. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the
coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Currently VFR with scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft and
intermittent high clouds. Tonight`s forecast gets a bit tricky.
High confidence in visibility restrictions (along with low cigs)
at KILM overnight through sunrise, with potential for LIFR
conditions. CRE and MYR will likely see fog overnight as well,
though perhaps not as thick or long lasting as the Cape Fear
region. Confidence is lower further inland as there may be some
mid/high clouds moving in late tonight, and might see more
stratus vs fog around dawn. Will see improvements after day
break, with thunderstorm chances increasing some towards end of
TAF period along I-95 corridor.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will
bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday
through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT.
Lightning is also possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Light southerly flow continues today as
Bermuda High remains the dominant feature. Weak sea breeze will
develop in the afternoon which may bump winds near shore to
around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less continue to be a mix of a
dominant southeast wind wave and a weak easterly swell.

Saturday through Tuesday Night... Bermuda high will maintain SE
flow this weekend, becoming southerly on Sunday around 10 knots.
Winds increase early next week as winds turn S and SW. SW flow
by Tuesday will increase to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet this
weekend, increasing to 2-3 early next week. Low impact easterly
swell will continue through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/21