Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
501
FNUS52 KILM 041250
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
850 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend
as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low
pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with
well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late
portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of
next week due to an approaching frontal system.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
NCZ105>110-050500-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
850 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Today Tonight Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 0 0 40
Precip Type None None Tstms
LAL 1 2 3
Max/Min Temp 82 64 80
Min/Max RH (%) 56 97 67
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var SE 5 S 5
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SE 7 Lgt/Var S 8
Precip Amount 0.00 0.00 0.15
Precip Duration 2
Precip Begin 6 AM
Precip End Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 72/0900 2000 71/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4900 3700
Transport Wind (mph) S 14 S 16
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 68600 59200
ADI Early 41 Gen Good 59 Gen Good 48 Gen Good
ADI Late 67 Good 8 Poor 60 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 9 5 6
Max LVORI Late 2 6 2
Min VSBY Early 1 Fog 7 7
Min VSBY Late 7 7 7
Turner Stability B D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 68 percent.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
92 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 56 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
88 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
53 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
around 70. Maximum RH 89 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-050500-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
850 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Today Tonight Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 30 30 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 83 64 82
Min/Max RH (%) 55 99 61
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var SE 5 S 4
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 6 Lgt/Var S 7
Precip Amount 0.02 0.04 0.19
Precip Duration 1 1 5
Precip Begin 11 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 71/0900 2000 70/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 5000 3800
Transport Wind (mph) S 14 S 16
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 70000 60800
ADI Early 43 Gen Good 54 Gen Good 47 Gen Good
ADI Late 59 Gen Good 9 Poor 55 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 5 8
Max LVORI Late 1 7 2
Min VSBY Early 2 Rain 7 7
Min VSBY Late 7 7 6 Rain
Turner Stability B D C
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of
thunderstorms 50 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 58 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
92 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
49 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum
RH 86 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
around 70. Maximum RH 88 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 54 percent. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-050500-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
850 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Today Tonight Sun
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 20 30 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 81 65 80
Min/Max RH (%) 62 98 68
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var SE 4 S 4
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SE 6 Lgt/Var S 7
Precip Amount 0.01 0.07 0.24
Precip Duration 1 1 2
Precip Begin 10 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 72/0800 1900 71/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4500 3800
Transport Wind (mph) S 14 S 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 63000 57000
ADI Early 45 Gen Good 52 Gen Good 47 Gen Good
ADI Late 56 Gen Good 8 Poor 55 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 6 7
Max LVORI Late 2 7 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 7 7
Min VSBY Late 7 7 6 Rain
Turner Stability B D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 68 percent.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of showers 40 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
89 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
50 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
around 70. Maximum RH 90 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 58 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-050500-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
850 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Today Tonight Sun
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 40 40 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 80 64 81
Min/Max RH (%) 63 99 62
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var SE 4 Lgt/Var
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 5 Lgt/Var S 6
Precip Amount 0.11 0.12 0.18
Precip Duration 2 2 5
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 71/0900 2000 70/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4300 4400
Transport Wind (mph) S 13 S 14
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 55900 61600
ADI Early 40 Fair 39 Fair 51 Gen Good
ADI Late 50 Gen Good 8 Poor 58 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 6 9
Max LVORI Late 2 9 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Min VSBY Late 6 Rain 7 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
49 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
87 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
89 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal. Precipitation near normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$
Forecaster...VAO