824
FXUS61 KILN 301422
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1022 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to push east
through the area today as a cold front crosses the region. High
pressure will then build in for the middle of the week with the
return of much above normal temperatures. Another cold front
will move toward the area on Friday bringing the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not too many changes made to the ongoing fcst other than minor
tweaks to PoP/sky timing in accordance with latest obs/trends.
Sct SHRA activity will linger in NE KY and south-central OH into
early/mid afternoon, with more ISO activity further N into
central OH during the afternoon as well. However, a drying
trend should evolve for most locales by mid/late afternoon,
with increasingly-sunny skies by late in the day from W to E.
The late-day sunshine should allow for a late-day bump in temps,
especially near/W of I-71 where a bit more prolonged sunshine
is expected. Highs will range from the mid 70s near/W of I-71 to
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in south-central OH and NE KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level flow turns westerly with surface high pressure
building into the region tonight. Skies will become clear
with light winds overnight. Lows tonight fall into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

Mid level ridging begins to build into the area Wednesday
offering dry weather and warmer temperatures. High temperatures
to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. These readings
are about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 ridge axis remains firmly planted across the Midwest region
Wednesday night. Continued ridge amplification continues into
Thursday, with height rises leading to warmer daytime highs in the
lower to middle 80s. With surface flow still having an easterly
component to it, dewpoints will be fairly reasonable, primarily in
the 50s for most. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry at
the surface through Thursday and likely Thursday night.

Mean ridge axis translates eastward as we head into Friday. A
longwave trough will be positioned across a large portion of the
western and central CONUS. A shortwave embedded in this trough will
propagate through the Ohio Valley on Friday. This will lead to
favorable chances for showers and some thunderstorms as well given
the influx of marginal instability.

Depending on timing of this upper level feature, some precip will
linger into Saturday. This far out, it is still uncertain how long
precip will linger, but it seems that by Saturday night that we will
briefly dry back out. As of now, Sunday is trending drier across our
fa as the primary shortwave ejects eastward. However, it does appear
that another shortwave feature will usher in precip to our fa again
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An band of showers will continue spreading east - pushing east
of the TAF sites this morning ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Showers which were beginning to taper off over the west will
continue to ending from west to east this morning as the
cold front pushes east of the TAF sites.

VFR cigs will drop into MVFR with a brief period of IFR
possible early. MVFR cigs to continue through mid morning
before scattering out with VFR conditions developing this
afternoon. VFR conditions to continue into tonight as weak high
pressure builds in. The exception is KLUK where some MVFR
valley fog is possible late tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR cigs possible Friday afternoon
into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR