National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIWX 091915
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry tonight. 20% chance for a stray shower or storm mainly
  in Jay County, IN and Allen County, OH.

- Flood Watch in effect from 8 PM EDT Wednesday until 8 AM EDT
  Friday.

- Widespread rainfall likely Wednesday evening through Friday.
  Some uncertainties remain regarding the track of the system,
  however, river flooding and areas of high water are looking
  likely by the end of the week as rain adds up 1.5 to 2.25
  inches total. Locally higher amounts possible.

- Warm and mainly dry weekend ahead!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Latest regional radar shows areas of showers along the Ohio River in
far southern Indiana slowly creeping northward. A weak frontal
boundary will yield a slight chance for a shower or storm tonight
(20% or less) for the far southeast portion of the CWA (mainly Jay
County, IN and Allen County, OH). Otherwise, it will be dry
overnight with lows in the 40s.

A much better, more widespread chance for rain and some embedded
thunderstorms arrives Wednesday after 18-21Z and lasts through
Thursday. There is still some track uncertainty to sort out; the GFS
and ECMWF take the area of low pressure across the western portion
of the CWA while most of the other hi-res and mid range model
guidance has the system take a more southeasterly track through
central Indiana/Ohio. Heavy rainfall and renewed concerns for
flooding are likely, especially along the US 24 corridor in northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio. With the onset of the system now about
24 hours out and with growing confidence in the heavy rain/flooding
threat, I have decided to issue a Flood Watch. It will be in effect
from 8 PM EDT Wednesday through 8 AM EDT Friday for northeast
Indiana and northwest Ohio. Heavy rain will likely exacerbate
river and stream flooding (especially in the Maumee and Upper
Wabash basins where there are already a few River Flood Watches
in effect). Areas of high water in low lying and rural areas
will also be possible. Much of our CWA is in a Marginal (level
1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Thursday. By the time rain
comes to an end Friday morning, rain totals will be between 1.5
to 2.25 inches, with the highest totals across northeast Indiana
and northwest Ohio. Locally higher amounts are possible. As the
backside of the system wraps around on Friday, a tight pressure
gradient and CAA will yield gusty winds and highs only in the
50s (normal for this time of year, but cooler compared the 60s
and 70s we`ve had lately).

WAA and southwesterly flow will promote highs into the 70s both days
this weekend. A slight rain chance exists for Sunday afternoon (20-
30%), but otherwise, expect a sunny and warm spring weekend! Into
next week, it appears as though the active pattern resumes once
again with rain possible Tuesday into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Few weather concerns during this TAF cycle. A cold front is
nearly bisecting Indiana from northeast to southwest this
afternoon. Clouds are streaming in to the northeast along this
feature and there is a non-zero chance of a pop-up south
primarily south of KFWA. Coverage looks to be sparse. Wind will
gradually veer through the TAF period.
 &&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
     INZ006>009-015-017-018-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown