112
FXUS63 KIWX 112233
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts diminish and decreasing clouds this evening.

- Warmer; a beautiful Spring afternoon Sunday.

- Wet weather returns later Monday afternoon through Tuesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

It`s been a cool, breezy afternoon thanks to strong cold air
advection in the wake of this morning`s cold front. Southern
Michigan has been socked in with clouds most of the day as the upper-
level low pivots through the state. However, this feature is now
lifting northeast such that decreasing clouds are expected beyond
sunset, especially as the lake breeze pushes inland these next
few hours.

Warm air advection ramps up on Mother`s Day (Hi, Mom!) as a
trough digging into the Southern Plains buckles the upstream
500-mb pattern. High temperatures will soar well into the 70s
under mostly sunny skies. High clouds are favored to stream in
from the northwest late in the day as a low streaks through
Quebec, with any associated late-day rain showers confined to
central and northern Michigan. Overnight and into Monday
morning, a weak secondary low is forecast to develop across
southern Michigan. Newly available high resolution guidance
suggests most of this activity will be confined north of the
Michigan border; POPs have been adjusted accordingly.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive later Monday
afternoon through Monday night as the aformentioned Southern
Plains trough lifts over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The
associated surface low and warm front will be a focus for the
greatest rainfall totals Monday night through Tuesday. the
Weather Prediction Center has increased their rainfall forecast
(a trend in the right direction), forecasting totals near 1"
Monday through Wednesday, when the trough finally clears the
forecast area.

Drying out Wednesday and most of Thursday (in-house blend
counties to be too broad and fast with POPs on Thursday) before
our next trough moves through, threatening another dose of wet
weather Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle, with no impacts
to aviation expected. As seen on visible satellite imagery,
clouds are decreasing downwind of Lake Michigan this evening.
Clear skies prevail through the overnight hours and into the day
Saturday. While a few 20 kt gusts will be possible at KFWA
before 03Z, winds are starting to diminish and will become very
light this evening, sustained at about 5 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson