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000
FXUS62 KJAX 151957
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
357 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE
THIS WEEK...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Late afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure
(1026 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature
extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula. Aloft...stout
ridging remains in place over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern
Gulf of Mexico), with this ridge axis extending northward through
the lower Mississippi Valley and through the Plains states. This
ridge continues to create deep and dry northwesterly flow aloft,
with this subsident air mass suppressing cumulus cloud
development throughout our region despite temperatures this
afternoon climbing to the low and middle 80s at most inland
locations. A loose local pressure gradient has allowed the Gulf
and Atlantic sea breezes to move slowly inland this afternoon, and
coastal temperatures have cooled back to the upper 70s following
the passage of this boundary, and dewpoints at coastal locations
have risen to the mid and upper 50s. Dewpoints elsewhere ranged
from the mid 40s to the lower 50s as of 19Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breeze boundaries will likely
collide near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor shortly after sunset
this evening. The atmosphere will remain too dry and subsident for
more than scattered, flat cumulus development along these
boundaries this evening. Otherwise, southerly low level flow
overnight will begin to increase moisture levels enough for patchy
fog formation towards sunrise across north central FL, with fog
possibly extending into southern portions of the St. Johns River
basin. Thin cirrus cloudiness will begin to spill over the ridge
axis located to our west, with this cloudiness beginning to move
over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise.
Otherwise, surface winds will again decouple towards midnight,
with better radiational cooling conditions expected tonight,
allowing lows to fall to the mid and upper 50s inland, while a
light southerly breeze continues along the immediate coast,
keeping lows in the lower 60s for locations east of Interstate 95
early on Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Atlantic surface ridging will continue to extend its axis westward
across the FL peninsula, while the stout ridge in place over the
Bay of Campeche deflects a shortwave trough that is currently
crossing the Desert Southwest northeastward towards the Great
Lakes by Wednesday night. Periods of high altitude cloudiness will
occasionally spill into our region from the west, but our tranquil
weather pattern will overall continue, with highs climbing to the
mid and upper 80s at inland locations on both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Sea breezes will continue to push well
inland during the afternoon hours, keeping coastal highs closer to
80. Southerly low level flow will continue to gradually increase
moisture levels, leading to patchy to areas of fog formation early
on Wednesday morning, especially for locations along and east of
U.S. Highway 301. Fog coverage may shift westward by early
Thursday morning. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to
around 60 inland and the low to mid 60s at coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridging aloft will flatten late this week, allowing for a weak
frontal boundary to enter the southeastern states on Thursday.
This front will not have enough support to push through our
region, only serving to shift the Atlantic ridge axis southward.
Low level flow will veer to a more south-southwesterly direction,
and a lingering dry air mass should allow highs to climb to the
upper 80s and lower 90s at inland locations late this week through
the weekend, with afternoon sea breezes keeping coastal highs in
the low to mid 80s. Lows will warm to the low and mid 60s area-
wide by late in the week and during the upcoming weekend.

Troughing aloft will gradually evolve over the northern Plains
states late this week, and a shortwave trough will then dive
southeastward through the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi
Valleys during the weekend. This feature will drive a cold front
towards our area from the northwest by Sunday afternoon, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. The front should
slowly pass through our region on Sunday night and Monday, with a
cooler and drier air mass then expected to follow in its wake by
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Highs
will cool back to the 70s for locations north of Interstate 10 in
the wake of the frontal passage on Monday, with lower 80s expected
for locations south of I-10.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at the regional
terminals. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible overnight
at VQQ. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will progress
inland this afternoon, with east to southeasterly winds remaining
sustained around 10 knots through around 23Z at SGJ, while
westerly surface winds around 5 knots at SSI shift to south-
southeasterly around 10 knots after 19Z. Light and variable
surface winds elsewhere will shift to southeasterly and will
increase to around 10 knots following the passage of the Atlantic
sea breeze later this afternoon, except at GNV, where surface
winds will shift to west-southwesterly and will increase to around
10 knots following the passage of the Gulf Coast sea breeze late
this afternoon. Surface winds will then shift to southerly at the
regional terminals by 01Z, with speeds diminishing overnight.
Southerly surface winds sustained around 5 knots are expected
after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its
axis westward across the northeast Florida waters through
Thursday, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across
our local waters. Seas of 2-3 feet will prevail near shore during
the next several days. Evening wind surges may briefly bring
speeds up towards Caution levels of 15-20 knots offshore, where
seas will build slightly to 3-4 feet tonight.

A weak cold front entering the southeastern states on Thursday
may stall over the Georgia waters by Friday, resulting in a brief
period of light and variable wind directions across our local
waters. Southwesterly winds may strengthen somewhat late in the
the weekend ahead of another approaching cold front, which could
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon
and evening.

Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds each afternoon will combine
with a lingering easterly ocean swell to keep a moderate rip
current risk at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A very dry air mass will be slow to loosen its grip over our
region this week, resulting in relative humidity values
crashing to near critical thresholds during the afternoon hours
again on Tuesday. Otherwise, southeasterly transport winds will
become breezy by Tuesday afternoon across northeast and north
central FL, which will combine with elevated mixing heights to
create good daytime dispersion values. Southerly transport winds
around 10 mph will result in mainly fair daytime dispersion values
across southeast GA on Tuesday. Transport winds will then shift
to southerly on Wednesday area-wide, with breezy southeasterly
surface winds expected at coastal locations during the afternoon
hours. Elevated mixing heights will continue, creating good
daytime dispersion values at most locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Water levels are cresting today in a moderate flood along the
Alapaha River near the Statenville gauge. Water levels are
expected to fall back to minor flooding by early Wednesday
morning, followed by the river falling below flood stage late on
Thursday. Minor flooding that will be occurring along lower
portions of the Suwannee River this week will also result in
continued rises in water levels along lower portions of the Santa
Fe River, with ongoing minor flooding rising to moderate flood
levels by Thursday morning and then approaching a major flood
during the early portions of next week. Water levels along the
lower Santa Fe near the gauge at Hildreth are expected to rise
above flood stage on Tuesday night, with minor flooding then
continuing during the next several days.

Water levels have crested just below a moderate flood along the
Satilla River near the gauge at Waycross, with water levels
expected to fall below flood stage later this week. Minor flooding
will continue during the next several days along the lower
Satilla River around the Atkinson gauge. Water levels have risen
above flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River near
the Baxley gauge, where minor flooding is forecast to continue
through early Friday morning. Water levels are still expected to
crest just below flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha
River near the Charlotteville gauge towards midweek Otherwise,
water levels have fallen below flood stage along portions of the
St. Marys River near the Moniac gauge, with levels expected to
remain below flood stage downstream at the gauge near Macclenny.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  80  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  57  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  57  89  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  89  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$