Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 301112
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Spot Forecast for Paynes Prairie 1301 Burn...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A southeast to south flow expected during the morning, and will
trend to the south and then southwest this afternoon. There is
a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the late
afternoon. A light and mainly variable wind flow is expected tonight,
and combined with increased humidity to about 95-100 percent could
lead to some fog and smoke combination. By sunrise Wednesday,
a light westerly wind may develop but only around 2-3 mph.

At least during the late evening, the potential for smoke and fog
around I-75/441 seems low, but there may be a subtle wind shift
around midnight that would bring the smoke back toward I-75/441 area.

.TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  44  48  52  53  54  56  56  57  58
Weather cov.....                                    SCH
Weather type....                                    RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............66  71  75  79  81  83  85  85  85  85
RH..............93  80  69  60  54  49  45  45  45  45
Heat index (F)..64  70  75  79  84  86  87  87  87  86
Wind chill (F)..64  70  75  79  82  84  86  86  86  85
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.7   7   9   10  9   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.0 6.8 7.3 7.1 5.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.10  9   8   7   7   6   6   6   7   7
Dispersion idx..10  18  28  33  44  42  47  50  56  48
LVORI...........6   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  42  34  28  22  16  14  13  12  20  28  36
Weather cov.....SCH                                     PTY PTY
Weather type....RW                                      FOG FOG
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............83  81  78  76  73  70  69  68  67  66  65  64
RH..............49  54  60  66  73  84  87  90  90  93  97  97
Heat index (F)..86  85  82  76  73  71  69  68  66  65  65  64
Wind chill (F)..85  83  80  76  73  71  69  68  66  65  65  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   7   7   6   6   3   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3
Dispersion idx..39  25  3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   5   5   7   7   7   8   8

.WEDNESDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  48  34  23  15  15  15  15  43  43  43  43
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY PTY                 SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG FOG                 RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............65  66  66  71  76  81  83  85  87  87  87  87
RH..............93  90  97  90  79  65  59  53  47  47  45  46
Heat index (F)..65  65  66  71  75  83  85  88  90  90  89  89
Wind chill (F)..65  65  66  71  75  80  82  85  87  87  86  86
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.5 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
Dispersion idx..2   2   3   7   15  21  32  40  53  52  52  50
LVORI...........8   7   8   5   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Shashy
Requested by...Daniel Cook
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412758.0/JAX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Daniel.R.Cook@floridadep.gov