227
FXUS63 KJKL 130555 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
155 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather holds into the afternoon, before an approaching
  system from the Plains brings more unsettled conditions.

- Near to a little above normal temperatures through this work
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast in order to include the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor tweaks
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1153 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024

The forecast continues to be on track. Did delay the thicker high
clouds a bit longer into the overnight per the latest IR
Satellite trends. Forecast lows also look on target, although did
incorporate the latest trends in observations into the rest of the
hourly temperature forecast through dawn. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024

Mainly high thin clouds are streaming in from the southwest
currently, with mostly clear skies still holding over eastern
Kentucky. These clouds will thicken up with time after midnight,
but not before valleys make a quick drop off through the 50s, with
mid to upper 40s still looking on target for the overnight lows
within our normally cooler spots. The current forecast has all of
this well in hand. Merely made a few adjustments based on the
trends in observations. Updates will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft making for a beautiful Sunday
across eastern KY. The surface high will shift east of the region
tonight, allowing for a southerly wind flow to start. This shift
should allow for a quick warm up. We`ll start the day Monday right
around normal, with our valley locations dropping into the mid to
upper 40s. Highs Monday likely around warm to about 5 degrees warmer
than today.

A southwest flow aloft Monday afternoon will allow for moisture to
get pumped into the region, bringing a return to rain and storm
chances by late afternoon and through the night. Given that today is
fairly dry across the region, this moisture return won`t be strong
enough to bring heavy rains in the short term. Better rains look to
hold of to Tue/Wed time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024

An active week of weather on tap in the extended. The general model
consensus suggests that a series of weather systems will move across
the eastern half of the CONUS from Tuesday onward. There should be
one breif lull in the action Wednesday night and Thursday, as one
system exits to our east, and a weak ridge of high pressure aloft
moves through behind the exiting trough. The ridge will be somewhat
flat, and may extend from the Gulf of Mexico only as far north as
the lower Ohio Valley. The ridge will be quickly displaced Thursday
night, as another large trough of low pressure moves in from the
Great Plains. The first cyclone will bring widespread showers and
storms to eastern Kentucky Tuesday through Wednesday. Showers and
storms will be most prevalent during the afternoon and evening
hours, when heating and instability will be maximized. This scenario
will repeat itself Thursday night into Saturday, as a second low
pressure system move through. Used a blend of the latest runs of the
GFS, GFS Ensembles, and ECMWF models to formulate the extended
portion of the forecast this time around.

Temperatures should be near normal to begin the period, but will
steadily increase through out the week, as persistent southerly and
southwesterly flow sets up across the region. We could easily see
highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week
across eastern Kentucky. Forecast concerns will include cloud to
ground lighting that occurs with any thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall with any storms. We are not expecting any hydro issues or
severe weather across eastern Kentucky in the extended at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

VFR conditions will hold through the period, although clouds will
increase and lower with time, particularly for the afternoon and
evening, as a surface low approaches from the west. A few, mainly
light, showers will pass into the area from the southwest during
the evening. Winds will be light and variable through mid morning,
before increasing to between 5 and 10 kts out of the south.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF