Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221510
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
A gray day is underway across the Florida Keys this morning. After
last night`s round of rain, the island chain and its nearshore
waters are currently clear of precipitation despite a broken
stratus deck blanketing our area. This hasn`t brought much relief
to our temperatures as current observations read in the upper 70s
with humid dewpoints in the upper 60s. Fresh east to southeast
breezes prevail along the Reef after slackening breifly this
morning post convection. Multiple clusters of bubbling convection
can be observed in the Gulf of Mexico moving west southwest
towards South Florida. The nearest wave is just scraping the edges
of our northernmost Gulf waters and the far eastern Straits of
Florida as it lumbers southwest.

Over the next 24 hours or so, the previously mentioned waves of
convection are progged to cross through the Florida Keys bringing
multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe storms to the
island chain and its surrounding waters. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed the Florida Keys in a Slight risk (level 2 of
5) of severe thunderstorms for today with the main hazards being
damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, isolated large hail,
and perhaps a violent waterspout or two. The KKEY 12z sounding
highlights an extremely moist profile (PW of 1.77 inches) and
impressive low level shear (SFC to 1km SRH of 117 m^2/s^2 with an
Effective Bulk Wind Difference of 55 kts). The current KBYX VAD
wind profile continues to verify a great veering profile behind
the warm front that lifted north through the Keys earlier this
morning. We have the starting ingredients for convective
development, but will be lacking in the usual day time heating
component at least early on. Regardless of how this effects storm
intensity, the next round of convection is expected to arrive at
the island chain as early as later this afternoon. CAMs have been
unsurprisingly erratic with several solutions on both timing and
location of future storms. That being said, we have high
confidence in a wave of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
Florida Keys. Along with the threat of severe weather, 3 to 5
inches of rain are expected in the next 24 hours, resulting in a
Flood Watch across all island communities into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters. From synopsis, strong east to southeast breezes will
continue today across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys as
low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico. These breezes will
clock around to the southeast to south tonight. Strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms will develop and roll into our
waters later this afternoon and into tonight. These thundery
squalls may come in multiple episodes today through Saturday, and
will be capable of damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall,
isolated large hail, and perhaps a violent waterspout or two. The
heavy weather will depart Saturday evening as fresh to strong
breezes shift to the northwest. Breezes will shift quickly to the
northeast then east Monday and Monday night. Breezes will relax to
gentle to moderate by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Although currently VFR conditions are prevailing at both island
terminals, MVFR to IFR conditions will impact the terminals around
20-24z. After a wave of showers and thunderstorms, there will be
a break before another round potentially overnight into early
morning hours. Winds will be southeasterly with gusts of near 30
knots outside of convection. In convection winds will have sharp
turn to the west with near severe gust speeds. TEMPO is included
for 20-24z but as timing in confidence increases will nail it down
more.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  74  82  70 /  80  90  80  20
Marathon  83  75  83  71 /  70  90  80  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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