Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
296 FXUS62 KKEY 010231 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Well it looks like wet season may be upon us. KBYX radar showed showers and even an isolated thunderstorm to the north of the Chain for much of the late afternoon and into the evening hours. These showers drifted southwest into the Lower Keys bringing more rainfall to KEYW with the shower this evening dropping 0.26 inches. This combined with the morning showers brings today`s total to 0.40 inches so far. Then the showers dissipated over the Lower Keys but new showers popped up during the evening north of the Middle Keys with one of these drifting south into MTH. MTH recorded 0.08 inches total of rainfall for the day so far. All of this activity has since waned for the Island Chain and points north, however, new activity has developed over the Straits of Florida to the south of the Lower Keys which was moving west to southwest near 5 knots. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Surface high pressure remains in place to the southwest of Bermuda this evening while maintaining its strength for the time being. Another high is moving across the Eastern United States which is beginning to impinge on the previous high. This is resulting in marine platforms around the Keys observing northeast to east winds near 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The aforementioned surface high southwest of Bermuda will continue to maintain east to southeast breezes through the overnight. Winds that remain northeasterly currently are due to the convective influences earlier this evening but should switch back to east to southeast. The 00z RAOB this evening showed a fairly moist profile from the surface up to around 730 mb before drying out some above this layer to the tropopause. Also, there is a fair amount of CAPE with values of 1128 J/kg measured and a PWAT value measured of 1.50 inches. Also, the Key West waterspout index came in at 40% this evening. Due to this, the forecast remains on track as residual moisture as well as remnant boundaries from earlier convection will be the foci for potentially more activity overnight which we are already seeing over the Straits. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will continue to meander in the western North Atlantic through mid- week. With the high slowly weakening, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming gentle to moderate. As the high refortifies in the west North Atlantic late in the week and into the weekend, an extended period of generally moderate easterly breezes is expected. Breezes for this period will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, then lull during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Outside of the shower earlier this evening at MTH, both terminals look to remain dry for the next 24 hours. Though, residual moisture and boundaries remain in place across the Keys which may spark further activity later on in the period. Any shower will be capable of producing convective wind gusts and briefly reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions. However, confidence remains low, therefore, VCSH was left out of the TAFs for now. Near surface winds are expected to generally be 10 knots or less and mainly out of the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 75 84 75 / 30 20 10 20 Marathon 84 75 84 75 / 30 30 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest