Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
007 FXUS62 KKEY 090830 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Mostly clear, warm and dry conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Thursday morning, with radars detecting no precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis has changed little during the past 24 hours, with high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, and the Keys remaining in moderate SE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, the mid level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the low level ridge over Florida have continued to strengthen during the past 24 hours. This pushed the inversion as sampled by the 00Z Key West sounding down below 3000 feet, with PW dropping to 1.09 inches (below the 25th percentile for the date). Recent GOES-TPW satellite imagery shows a similarly dry airmass around the Keys, with even drier air (estimated PWs below one inch) just west of Andros Island. Mostly clear, warm and dry weather will prevail through the rest of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico, and a dry airmass with a low inversion prevents even isolated shower development. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 80. Heading into the weekend, a mid-latitude trough swinging offshore from the eastern CONUS will flatten the subtropical ridge south of our latitude, with a surface frontal boundary pushing down the Florida peninsula. This front appears likely to stall and eventually dissipate nearby during the weekend, but may introduce a brief interlude of northerly breezes Saturday night and slightly lower dewpoints on Sunday. The front will be quite starved for moisture at our latitude, and guidance has remained quite dry through the weekend. Have maintained just 10 percent PoPs with no mention of thunder through Sunday night. We are not expecting any significant change in temps, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s. The forecast becomes somewhat more uncertain heading through the first half of next week, as guidance continues to vary in the strength and timing of the next trough forecast to push eastward from the Southern Plains. At this time, it appears that much of the convective activity will probably remain north of our area, with the mid level ridge holding firm just to our south. Guidance has trended drier from Monday through Wednesday, and have nudged PoPs down to 20 percent through the period, although we did keep a mention of thunder. Temps will change little, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Overnight observations show SE breezes ranging from 10 to 13 knots off the Upper Keys to 17 to 18 knots at Sand Key C-MAN. Winds are expected to decrease during the morning, but will include Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the Straits and Hawk Channel west of Craig Key to cover the next few hours. From the synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate southeast breezes today and tonight. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest on Friday, continuing to veer around the clock during the weekend as a weak frontal boundary moves down the Florida peninsula. The front will dissipate near the Keys waters on Sunday, then southeast breezes will resume early next week as another high pressure area moves over the western Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be mostly southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of near 20 knots early, then winds will subside to near 10 knots in the late morning to afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1873, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest