559
FXUS64 KLIX 132235
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
535 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Developing squall line over southwest LA has already had a
history of producing a few tornadoes and widespread wind damage.
This line is expected to accelerate some moving into the CWA
between 6 and 7 and then across most of the area before midnight.
It will also likely remain severe and thus SPC has issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 239 until midnight tonight for the entire area.
Main concern is damaging winds possibly greater than hurricane
force force along with large hail and even a few tornadoes. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Key Messages:
1. A flood watch remains in effect for areas along and south of
the I-10/12 corridor due to the threat for heavy rainfall that
could result in localized flash flooding primarily in urban and
poor drainage areas.

2. An enhanced risk for severe weather remains primarily along and
south of the I-10/12 corridor for the threat of a secondary round
of storms moving into the area this evening with damaging winds
and hail being the primary threat, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

The morning convection has surged southeast into the coastal
waters putting down a decent cold pool that has moderated
temperatures and stabilized the air mass overhead for now. SPC
mesoanalysis and LCH 18z special sounding have indicated that
ample instability (CAPE >5000 j/kg and ML lapse rates >7.5 C/km)
and sufficient 0-6km bulk shear (~45-50kt) lay just to our
southwest which has initiated the second round of deep convection
over coastal Texas. This second round is anticipated to continue
to deepen and organized as it traverses southwest LA and surges
east into our area. Timing of this MCS has sped up to the earliest
arrival into the Atchafalaya Basin to be by 6-7PM CDT. Given the
strength of the developing cold pool with this MCS, 12z HREF
guidance, and latest CAMs the expectation is for this system to
be more progressive though will pack a punch with damaging winds
and hail being the primary severe threat. Locally heavy rainfall
(rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr) will be another concern for urban and
poor drainage areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor.

Once this squall line pushes through over the course of 4-6 hours,
we`ll be monitoring the progression of the cold pool boundary to
ensure it clears coastal LA and diminishes the flooding threat.
The current thinking is all severe and flooding threat should be
over by sunrise on Tuesday.

Clearing skies by Tuesday afternoon will allow us to rapidly warm
up back into the upper 80s, and we should see temps follow strong
diurnal curves through midweek thereafter. Warmest day of the week
appears to be Wednesday which is collocated best with an
amplifying shortwave ridge and as well as mostly fair skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The next upper troughing will then move out into the plains by
mid week with sfc return flow forcing this boundary back to the
north moving back over the area possibly as early as Thu and this
whole thing looks to play out again similar to this event. The
first disturbance moves through mid day Thu and may hug the coast.
This should be associated with the warm front. The next main
system will move along the cold frontal interface as it stalls
across the area with an abundance of deep moisture Fri. This is at
least one solution, but as one can clearly see with the current
system, this will almost surely change several times before we get
there. The general synoptic structure looks valid, but we will
definitely need to get closer to even think of resolving the
smaller scale features. TE

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

MVFR to IFR CIGs will prevail through the remainder of the
daylight hours. Some breaks to scattered coverage can be expected
with the wake of the morning showers and storms, but expect
redevelopment of VCTS through the afternoon primarily along and
north of I-10/12 corridor. Another complex of strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west after 00 UTC
tonight with TEMPOs noted for windows of highest confidence of
TSRA impacts. However, timing is still somewhat uncertain with
exact evolution of these storms. After this line of storms clears
the area through 06-09 UTC timeframe, expect SHRA to persist into
sunrise in the morning with gradual improvement of CIGS/VIS as
the day progresses on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Higher winds (15-25 knots) and seas (3-7 feet) are expected through
the overnight hours tonight. Strong thunderstorms moving through the
area could result in locally higher winds and seas which will be
dangerous for small crafts. Winds become more west to southwesterly
and decrease to less than 10 knots through the afternoon on Tuesday
where hazards to small crafts will decrease. Southerly component to
light winds remains intact through midweek but becomes more easterly
with time by later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  84  61  86 /  70  20   0   0
BTR  68  89  65  91 /  70  20   0   0
ASD  68  87  66  91 /  90  50   0   0
MSY  71  87  71  89 /  90  30   0   0
GPT  69  86  67  89 /  90  60   0   0
PQL  68  87  66  91 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ046>048-056>060-064>070-
     076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS