Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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489 FXUS64 KLUB 061730 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1230 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively tilted over the Four Corners. Although the dryline is situated well to our west along the Sacramento Range, the increased upper ascent will be too little to overcome an exceptional cap advecting our way. So despite PWATs currently around 150% of normal, none of this moisture will be wrung out today as the dryline sweeps off the Caprock later this morning before ultimately stalling near or just beyond our eastern column of counties by mid-afternoon. There is a slim chance (<10%) that the dryline convects this afternoon near Childress even though this area lies south of the upper jet axis where broad subsidence tends to hinder deep convection. On a related note, the majority of CAMs and coarser resolution models depict today`s supercells unfolding along and north of this upper jet axis across west central and northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, strong heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow. By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Cyclonic flow aloft will continue through mid-week stemming from a nearly stationary closed upper low over the Northern Plains. This will continue to promote warm, dry, and breezy conditions for the area on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Tuesday will already begin the day with the dryline well east of the area. Additional surface cyclone development will occur in lee of the Rockies on Tuesday in southeastern Colorado. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will be the primary driver for increased winds. Jet streaks aloft will reside north of the area roughly along the 37th parallel. Westerly downsloping winds will boost temperatures well above seasonal averages. Wednesday becomes a little trickier with the surface wind forecast as a cold front attempts to backdoor into the area. Models are in a rough agreement in hanging this front up in the southern Texas Panhandle which would keep much of the region within the breezy westerly low level flow and therefore continued warmth. The stationary front will then push through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning bringing in cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. After some short wave ridging aloft to end the work week, models are depicting a trough in some form next weekend bringing precipitation chances back to the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. West winds are ramping up at LBB/PVW this afternoon with the passing Pacific front. Southwest breezy winds also persist ahead of the frontal passage at CDS. Winds will taper this evening to around 10 to 15 knots. LLWS out of the northwest at around 30 to 35 knots cannot be ruled out, but is highly contingent on how much surface winds diminish overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Critical fire weather is likely this afternoon and evening over the northern South Plains and far southwest TX Panhandle where the breeziest west winds of 25 to 30 mph overlap with very low RH values in the single digits. ERCs here remain near or below normal which should suppress the severity of fire spread. Elevated to critical fire weather can again be expected on Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity recovery will be non- existent on Tuesday morning. A strong low pressure system in southeast Colorado will allow southwest winds to increase across West Texas with greatest values on the caprock. Winds at the 20 foot level are generally expected to be between 20 and 25 mph on Tuesday afternoon. Very warm temperatures will continue allowing for afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the single digits on the caprock. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...11