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000
FXUS61 KLWX 160100
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move to our south overnight into Tuesday,
before returning northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A
strong cold front will move through this weekend, with high
pressure building in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Clearing skies expected the remainder of tonight behind the
departing cold front. High pressure will build over the area
into Tuesday morning with quiet conditions. Lows tonight will be
about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than last night with high pressure
pushing slightly cooler air straight out of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front, briefly becoming stationary along the Virginia
and North Carolina border, will return north as a warm front and
bring instability into the region once again. Highs Tuesday will
be noticeably cooler than Monday with highs in the 70s.
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread
northeast later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. More
showers are possible Wednesday night as a front crosses the
region. Highs Wednesday will be a couple of degrees cooler than
Tuesday as we will see an uptick in cloud cover and rain showers
on the unstable side of the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models continue to show varying solutions regarding the synoptic
pattern at the end of this week into the weekend. A weak disturbance
and surface low over the area Thursday morning will bring a chance
of showers, though rain chances are not particularly high at this
time. After that, models vary on when/how fast a cold front sweeps
through the area. The GFS is more progressive, showing a clean FROPA
sometime Friday night, then high pressure building in from the north
through the weekend. While the ECMWF, indicates a sagging front that
slowly moves through the area making for a wet weekend.

The temperature forecast will be dependent on what happens with the
aforementioned front. Currently have above normal highs in the low to
mid 70s Thursday through Saturday, becoming near normal in the 60s
for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight through early Wednesday with high
pressure keeping most areas dry, despite a warm front pushing up
from the north. It will be around midday Wednesday through
Wednesday night that increased showers could bring us some sub-
VFR conditions.

Showers are still possible Thursday and Friday at all
terminals, though any impacts are likely to be minimal. VFR
conditions prevail, with brief periods of sub- VFR conditions
possible in any heavy shower or storm. Northeast winds around
10kt, with some gusts to 20kt possible each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected overnight through Wednesday.
Northerly winds overnight will become southerly 5 to 10 knots
overnight into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will become more
southeasterly 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts late Wednesday.

Near-SCA winds are possible in northeast flow Thursday afternoon
over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with gusts of 15kt or
less elsewhere. A cold front will be near the area Friday, and could
cross the waters by Friday night. Northeast to east winds will be
around 10-15kt.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR