904
FXUS64 KMAF 061945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

We are positioned on the relatively quiet side of a potent weather
system moving into the central and northern Great Plains this
afternoon and evening. This system may very well result in a
significant severe weather outbreak across portions of the central
and southern Great Plains off to the east. In our neck of the woods,
this system is quickly mixing the dryline east of the region
bringing warm and dry southwesterly winds behind it. Temperatures
heat up quickly this afternoon, returning to the 90s across a bulk
of the region. Any 80s remained confined to the higher elevations
and northern portions of the area with 100s in the Big Bend.
Unfortunately, the return of drier air, especially across the rain-
starved western portions of the area, is resulting in the return of
fire weather. See the Fire Weather discussion below for full
details. Outside of this concern, the passing trough and potent
attendant jet streak are resulting in ongoing high winds across the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect. Tonight remains somewhat mild with most areas falling into
the 50s with 60s confined to the east. Heading into tomorrow sees
little change as the trough becomes an upper-low over the northern
Great Plains. This maintains the mostly zonal flow across the
region. Temperatures may be a touch warmer for all and winds remain
elevated though not as strong as today. It is still likely that
strong winds develop across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains,
though they are expected to remain just below high wind criteria.
Tomorrow night may similarly be a touch warmer than tonight as well.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Wednesday, and upper trough is forecast to be over Nebraska/Kansas,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal-to-southwest
flow aloft.  At the surface, increasing westerlies will shunt the
dryline/moisture well to the east.  The NAM12 develops a modest
mountain wave signature, suggesting a few hours of marginal high
winds in the Guadalupes.  These winds will add a downslope warming
component to temperatures, resulting in afternoon highs 4-6F above
normal.  This will combine with single-digit RH and increasing ERCs
to provide another critical fire weather day over the higher terrain
out west.  See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

Wednesday night, a secondary trough will begin developing over Utah,
closing off as early as 12Z Thursday.  At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to backdoor the area after 06Z, making it as far as the
Pecos by 00Z Friday.  This will cool highs along and behind to front
to AOB normal, with temperatures south of the front similar to
Wednesday`s.

Friday looks to be the coolest day this forecast as full frontal
effects set in.  Highs should come in only ~ 8-10F below normal.  As
surface winds veer around to easterly, upslope flow develop a little
convection south.

Saturday through Monday, a gradual warming trend sets in but, absent
significant ridging, not a strong one.  In fact, by Monday
afternoon, highs are forecast to recover to right around normal at
best.  Saturday, the secondary trough approaches, developing
convection over the east and offering perhaps the best chances of
rain this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Elevated west
winds develop this afternoon with the strongest winds out west.
Winds weaken after sunset this evening, becoming more
northwesterly overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Critical relative humidity is forecast every day through Thursday.
Tuesday, single-digit relative humidity is forecast everywhere but
the far eastern fringes of the FWA.  ERCs will be increasing, w/the
90th percentile bulls-eyed at Van Horn.  Increased 20-ft winds over
Southeast New Mexico will yield extreme RFTIs (7-8) over the area
currently in the RFW.  The evening or mid shift will upgrade the
watch as soon as the current warning expires.

Wednesday, SGPWO CIPs suggests the most critical fire weather day
this forecast as 20-ft winds increase across the higher terrain
clear down through the Big Bend, resulting in extreme RTFI over much
of the higher terrain, where no rain has fallen recently.  We`ll
again leave it up to subsequent shifts to issue the watch for this.

Thursday, a cold front backdoors the FWA as far as the Pecos by late
afternoon, confining critical fire weather conditions to south of
the front.  A smaller RFW or a strongly-worded RFD may be needed to
cover this.  Much will depend on frontal progression.

Friday through the weekend, critical fire weather conditions look
minimal due to cooler temperatures and a chance of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  92  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 53  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  97  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  96  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    49  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  92  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   58  92  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     57  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91