Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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987 FXUS64 KMAF 011734 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1234 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through SoCal/Baja at 14Z, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, KMAF had a dewpoint of 66F, making it feel like a dry day in Houston. KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/mucapes in excess of 3500 J/kg, w/a cap that should be eroded completely by 18Z. Mid-lvl lapse rates are ~ 8 C/km, and judging from activity yesterday, this would be expected. The HRRR has been consistent in developing the Pecos supercell ~ 20Z, which should peel off to the east as a right-mover, then unzipping a line of splitting/left- movers northward through the Permian Basin shortly thereafter. While deep-layer environmental shear remains tepid, plenty of cold pools are anticipated which will locally enhance/strengthen cells. KMAF will be doing an 18Z upper air flight, which should show steeper lapse rates as the upper trough approaches. Latest HRRR suggests we may not get off a 00Z flight anyway. Convective activity should continue through late this evening, tapering off to the east by 06Z or shortly thereafter. Abundant boundary layer moisture, clouds, and elevated winds should keep overnight lows 6-8F above normal. Thursday, a cold front will approach the area, but looks to stall just north of the CWA due to diurnal heating. Instead, increased westerlies will shunt the dryline/boundary-layer moisture east. Single-digit RH west of the dryline will result in elevated fire wx conditions. See fire wx discussion below for more details. Thicknesses decrease a little, shaving a couple of degrees off today`s highs, but temperatures should still come in ~ 5-7F above normal. Thursday night looks dry and uneventful and the cold front backdoors into the northeast. Mostly clear skies and the absence of an appreciable LLJ will allow overnight mins to cool to only 3-5F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The end of this week is expected to be the beginning of a return of more active weather across much of the area. To start the period, a large upper-low is forecast to be positioned over southern Manitoba and Ontario with a shortwave rounding its base across the central Rocky Mountains. Another shortwave trough should be positioned over southern California with southwesterly flow aloft over the southern Great Plains. With the trough passing to the north, a cold front may try to push into northern portions of the region. This front isn`t expected to bring much in terms of cooler temperatures but may result in a few thunderstorms across northeastern portions of the region. Otherwise, temperatures remain warm in the 80s and 90s for the majority with plentiful sunshine. This weekend continues the trend into a more active weather pattern. The southern California trough begins to broaden and lift into the central Great Plains Saturday. This provides an additional push to the cold front from Friday over our northern tier resulting in the front sagging further south until it stalls along the higher terrain. Along and behind this front should be the focus for more widespread thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon through the evening. There may be a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms given some modest shear and instability. The more significant threat with these thunderstorms will be very heavy rainfall. PWAT anomalies are expected to range from 0.5"-1" above normal, meaning that there is going to be ample rainfall potential with any thunderstorms. A similar threat for thunderstorms is expected again on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough digs into the Great Basin. Once again, heavy rainfall is going to be the main concern as another round of thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon and evening for much of the region. Temperatures should be a bit cooler thanks to the cold front and rainfall potential with some 70s returning while the remainder remain in the 80s. The shortwave trough across the Great Basin ejects into the central Great Plains to start the new week. This ushers in the return of drier and warmer weather to the forecast as ridging gradually makes its return to the southern Great Plains. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s and 90s once again on Monday with 90s becoming even more widespread by Tuesday and Wednesday to close out the forecast. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A line of convection is expected to develop this afternoon, and move through KMAF/KFST ~ 22Z. We`ve inserted a mention of this in the terminals, w/MVFR visibility and hail. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will continue through Thursday morning. Once mixing commences late Thursday morning, winds will veer to west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through early this evening for much of southeast New Mexico and the western higher elevations. This area is where the best overlap of elevated wind speeds and the very dry airmass behind the dryline overlap. It is expected to remain very dry across the western half of the region through the end of this week and into the weekend as it`ll remain behind the dryline with only poor to fair overnight recoveries. Fuels remain very dry across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas due to the lack of rain over the last month or two. This keeps the threat of elevated to near critical fire weather across these areas though relatively weak winds should keep the overall fire weather threat a bit lower. Further to the east, moisture remains relatively high and recent rains keep fire weather concerns low. A potential area of concern is the threat of lightning starts across portions of the higher elevations and adjacent plains. Dry fuels are still present in many of these locations and afternoon thunderstorms are possible today and again Friday and through the weekend. Lightning starts may be possible as a result though overall spread may be limited by weaker wind speeds. Fire weather concerns are expected to ramp up again next week as a strong shortwave trough passes north of the region. This not only expands the critical relative humidity across most the area but increases wind speeds. Given very dry fuels with western extent, the greatest concern is favored across this region with a gradual decrease in fire weather concerns as you move east where recent rainfalls have improved fuels. -Chehak && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 93 59 87 / 30 0 0 20 Carlsbad 58 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 67 96 65 92 / 10 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 62 93 59 92 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 88 54 87 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 51 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 91 59 89 / 10 0 0 10 Odessa 63 91 59 89 / 10 0 0 10 Wink 59 93 57 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44