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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200846
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.  AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND.  THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR.  BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO.  SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY.  THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH.  A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL.  EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  62  89  62  /   0  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              97  63  88  64  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                97  60  88  58  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 100  69  97  70  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  64  94  65  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  60  85  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   94  60  86  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   87  47  83  49  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  63  90  64  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  64  88  63  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   101  62  95  63  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

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