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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160450
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENE TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z AT KMAF...KINK AND KHOB. GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

12

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
5H HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS JUST E
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK IN WAKE OF LOW AND MSTR IS
STILL WELL INTO THE WRN AREAS. SUBTLE HINT OF LINGERING MINOR
SHRTWV TROF TO THE W...7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND MST UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVOR MTNS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HAVE LEFT 30
PCT IN THE FAR E REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS FOUND AND ISOLD POPS IN THE MTNS WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW CU/TCU DEVELOPING. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH M60-U60 DWPNTS POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB BY 12Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK NW AND
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE THAT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN DRIFT E-SE
INTO ADJACENT PLAINS. AS STORMS DRIFT FROM MTNS INTO PLAINS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND HOT. T/TD SPREADS NEAR 30F
WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS. LACK
OF IDENTIFIABLE SHRTWV TROF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHC-CHC
WHICH IS IN FCST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. IT WILL BE WARMER
ALL AREAS. PATTERN IS SIMILAR MONDAY EXCEPT THAT SFC PATTERN IS
BETTER ORGANIZED UNDERNEATH NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY NEAR THE NRN CWFA. 9H-85H THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EC NM
PLAINS/TX STATE-LINE INTO PB/BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NEAR SAID BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MAY HELP BOUNDARY SAG FARTHER S INTO PB. 12Z
MET MOS INDICATES 30 POPS AND MAKES GOOD SENSE WITH THE MODEL QPF
AND PATTERN ITSELF. FCST HAS 30-40 PCT POPS BUT WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO FIT CLOSER TO DESCRIBED BOUNDARY. STILL WARM/SEASONAL
ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE N.
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N TUE AND DRY AIR PUSHES FARTHER E INTO SE NM
PLAINS/UPPER TRANS PECOS SO WARMER/DRIER. STORMS WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FROM DAVIS MTNS S-SEWD WHERE MSTR HOLDS. WED/THUR THERE IS
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND WILL MOSTLY DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPS HOT... POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FRI-
SAT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN REACHES OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  96  72  96  /  10  20  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              69  95  71  96  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  98  67  97  /  10  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72  95  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  99  73  97  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  93  67  92  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  95  67  94  /  10  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   59  92  63  93  /  10  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  96  71  96  /  10  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  71  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  98  73  98  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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