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000
FXUS64 KMAF 142339
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION AND LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A COMPLEX
GROUPING OF (LIKELY) CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MIDLEVEL CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN COAHUILA/WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER +2 SD OVER CLIMO
OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT SHOW A DEEP MOIST
PROFILE WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE, A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR, AND FAIRLY LOW LCL`S. APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHERE
DEEP LAYER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COINCIDE.
RIGHT NOW, FOR TONIGHT, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...TO BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LAMESA TO MIDLAND/ODESSA TO SANDERSON LINE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT GRADUALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND WE`LL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AREA. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY LIGHT UP TOO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND WE`VE DRAWN ISOLATED POPS HERE AS WELL. THE PRECIP EVENT WILL DIE
DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SERVE TO DRIVE A FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS, THERE`LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN`T GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
     HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
     SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.


&&

$$

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