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000
FXUS64 KMAF 141930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS THE UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FOR A COUPLE DAYS...FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 HOWEVER THE CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 100 AT MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DID
NOT GO AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH EACH AFTERNOON BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTH HOWEVER DID NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED ADJUSTING EITHER WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS OFF TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY COOL
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL BE SEEING AT THE
END OF THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 63  93  65 100  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  92  66 100  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                60  95  63 100  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  94  69 102  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  96  67 100  /  30  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  89  64  91  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  93  62  97  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   49  87  50  89  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  94  66 100  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  94  67 100  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    63 100  66 104  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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