000
FXUS64 KMAF 181731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS
MAINLY AROUND CNM BUT TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS. SE WINDS
MOSTLY 10-15 KTS WITH SFC TROF TO THE W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU CENTRAL TX WITH MINOR
SHRTWV TROF QUICKLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  PRIMARY MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED E AND THIS FAR S ACROSS SE
NM/PB THE EML AROUND 7H HAS BEEN COOLED AND 7H-5H LR/S AREN/T AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY AND COOLER TEMPS EXTEND DOWN THE COLUMN INTO THE
SFC/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. RUC/NAM 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE TRANS PECOS MTNS AND STEEPER LR/S THERE THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN
LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND TEND TO AGREE. 12Z NAM12 IS STINGY WITH
PRECIP TODAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE POP/WX GRIDD TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE PB AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$