000
FXUS64 KMAF 171911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  94  72  97  /  30  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  94  75  97  /  40  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  98  71 102  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  97  74  97  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  98  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  95  68  95  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   67  91  68  98  /  30  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   62  91  61  94  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  73  97  /  30  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  73  95  75  97  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    72 100  72 103  /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$