000
FXUS64 KMAF 160943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.

FIRE WX...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY.  SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY.  THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING.  WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY.  NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.

THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  64 100  67  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  61 103  70  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  61 101  63  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 105  69 103  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  67 101  68  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          91  66  92  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   97  59  97  63  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   90  50  91  53  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  63 101  70  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  99  65 101  72  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                   102  62 103  65  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

67/29