000
FXUS64 KMAF 151127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT CNM... PEQ... AND FST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD BRIEFLY SEE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS AT MAF
BEFORE 14Z... OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER A FAIRLY STORMY EVENING LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME AREAS
BETWEEN FT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE PICKED UP OVER 3 INCHES OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90`S TO NEAR 100
IN A FEW SPOTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS
WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...MINUS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A STRONG CAP
WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE U.S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GENERATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SOMETIME TUESDAY.

FIRE WX...

A DRYLINE PUSHING EAST WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER 20FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DELAWARE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY.  THESE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.


&&

$$