000
FXUS64 KMAF 221729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
OVER THE AREA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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