000
FXUS64 KMAF 151059
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING, BUT MAY NOT FILL IN COMPLETELY BEFORE
HEATING COMMENCES.  WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AT KCNM,
BUT MORE VARIABLE CEILINGS AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.  CLOUD
BASES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15/16Z, OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN SO
WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN ANY OF THE TAFS ATTM.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
STRONGER. FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY STORMS WOULD BE THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  68  95  72  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  69  93  71  /  30  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                92  68  96  66  /  10  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  87  72  92  73  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  71  97  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          86  67  91  67  /  10  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   91  65  93  67  /  10  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   90  60  90  63  /  20  10  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  69  94  71  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  89  70  96  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    92  71  96  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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