Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 040413
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2013
See Aviation Discussion Below.
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. SW sfc flow will veer to W
by 18Z Wed, increasing and becoming gusty as upper trough
approaches, w/plenty of high clouds.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2013/
One more day of spring-like weather before very cold air and winter
precipitation move in Thursday and Friday.
Warm conditions continued today with temperatures into the 70s once
again this afternoon. Westerly downsloping winds have contributed to
the warm temperatures and low humidity values causing near critical
fire weather conditions across the western half of the region.
Winds were also strong in the Guadalupe Mountains today with the
Pine Springs WTM hitting 70+ mph gusts earlier this morning. RAWS
sites in that region are also showing stronger winds near 35 mph
this afternoon. Winds have come down from this morning and expect
the trend to continue into the evening. Will let the High Wind
Warning ride until 03Z this evening.
Expect one more warm and windy day Wednesday with a few more high
clouds streaming across the area. Winds will be strong once again
Wednesday with 700 mb winds of 40-50 kts over the Guadalupe
Mountains. Will move the starting time for Wednesday`s High Wind
Warning up to 12Z and keep it going until the evening when clouds
will thicken and decoupling occurs. A wind advisory may be needed
for the Eddy County plains Wednesday afternoon if enough mixing can
Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
Arctic cold front. The consensus is that the boundary will backdoor
its way into the western Low Rolling Plains just after midnight
Thursday morning, pushing to the Pecos River by Noon. The front
should arrive in the Midland/Odessa area around sunrise Thursday.
Temperatures will fall during the day with most locations reaching
their high in the morning. Precipitation will develop across the
region during the day Thursday as isentropic upglide increases. Most
locations will see rain, but the concern is that temperatures will
fall below freezing across the far northern Permian Basin and
western Low Rolling Plains sometime Thursday. Have included freezing
rain in the forecast for this area to account for this possibility.
The cold air will continue south and deepen Thursday night as
another disturbance crosses the region. This will increase the
likelihood of additional wintry precipitation for the region. Areas
along and north of the Pecos River including the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will see a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and even some snow
by Friday morning. Freezing rain accumulations may approach 1/4 inch
in much of the Permian Basin with around an inch of sleet/snow
possible over the northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling
Plains. This storm system does not look as bad as the one we had
two weeks ago, but nonetheless will cause travel problems by
Thursday night and Friday. Will continue highlight the winter
weather potential with an SPS for now. Stay tuned to the forecast as
it continues to be refined.
The large upper trough over the central U.S. will move off to the
east only to be replaced by another through this weekend. Will keep
it cold through the weekend with the possibility of some freezing
drizzle or even light snow. More cold air looks to spill south next
week as the train of Arctic fronts continue.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.