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000
FXUS62 KMFL 201820
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Broad mid level ridging that has been in place across South Florida
will gradually continue to break down through the rest of the
weekend. This is in response to a deepening mid level trough digging
southeastward through the Plains and eventually into the Southeast.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will continue to push
further east into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary remains draped
across the Gulf Coast States. This frontal boundary will slowly push
southeastward and through Northern Florida tonight into Sunday.
Across South Florida, this will cause the southeasterly wind flow
this afternoon to gradually veer and become more south to
southwesterly on Sunday. With moisture advection continuing to take
place through the rest of the weekend, some isolated shower activity
will be possible across interior sections this afternoon and then
again on Sunday afternoon where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes
collide and interact with each other. Due to lack of mid to upper
level support, any shower that develops will be low topped and
relatively short lived. High temperatures will rise into the upper
80s and lower 90s across most areas this afternoon and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Models remain in good agreement regarding the frontal boundary
expected for Monday, which should be reaching SoFlo on Monday. Best
timing in ensembles/globals still points at a Monday late
afternoon/evening event. Its parent trough/low complex will trek
across the E CONUS and lift to the NE, which will keep the best
dynamic support well away from the state. Therefore, the front will
likely be more frontolytic in nature and supporting mostly scattered
showers, and maybe a few thunderstorms. Only caveat that could
change the forecast prognosis will be the potential for a mid-level
shortwave moving across the state Monday afternoon. This could
contribute additional instability for a few strong isolated
thunderstorm, mainly around the Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach county
region. In response to this synoptic scenario, the Storm Prediction
Center has placed the northern half of SoFlo under a marginal risk
for severe weather, mainly north of interstate 75.

Latest solutions bring the decaying boundary somewhere over the area
and stalls through mid week. Thus, will keep very low/slight chances
of showers across the region each day.

The warm moisture advection will result in afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid-upper 80s near the coasts, and lower 90s across
interior areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will gradually
diminish and become light and variable as this evening progresses.
At KAPF, winds will increase and become west southwest this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the Atlantic waters for the rest of today. Wind shifts to the west
southwest can be expected over the nearshore Gulf waters this
afternoon. Winds will gradually become south to southwesterly across
all local waters on Sunday. These winds will gradually increase and
become moderate to fresh over the Atlantic waters later on Sunday
afternoon. Wave heights across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet
or less through the rest of the weekend. Wave heights over the
Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through the rest of
the weekend mainly across the Palm Beaches. The risk of rip currents
may increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches towards the middle
portion of next week as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  87  72  89 /  10  10   0  30
West Kendall     69  88  68  90 /  10  10   0  20
Opa-Locka        71  89  70  90 /  10  10   0  30
Homestead        70  86  70  89 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  85  71  88 /   0  10   0  40
N Ft Lauderdale  72  87  71  89 /   0  10   0  40
Pembroke Pines   72  88  71  91 /   0  10   0  30
West Palm Beach  70  88  68  87 /   0  20   0  60
Boca Raton       71  88  70  89 /   0  10   0  50
Naples           70  85  72  84 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC