400
FXUS62 KMHX 292319
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1915 Monday...No changes required to the near term.

Previous Disco as of 300 PM Mon...Very quiet weather pattern in
place over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. Mid- level ridge
remains overhead today as high pressure centered over the
Atlantic extends onshore. This pattern will remain in place
tonight, with continued southwesterly flow keeping overnight
temperatures mild under clear skies - upper 50s to low 60s.
Guidance has backed off a bit on low stratus potential
overnight, with now only the NAM and ARW advertising such
development. Both of these models have a history of being too
aggressive in showing low stratus in south to southwesterly
flow, and given the lack of support from any other guidance
(including a reliable GFS LAMP) did not reflect this in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper ridge will begin to break down
tomorrow as a strengthening shortwave trough, currently digging
into eastern Texas, shifts eastward. Attendant surface low
pressure/trough will also move across the southeastern CONUS,
bringing unsettled weather ahead of it. Eastern NC will remain
under the influence of the ridge into Tuesday evening, keeping
conditions dry but with increasing high clouds as upper level
moisture increases. The minority of guidance quickest with the
surface trough/low does show some isolated shower activity
impacting the coastal plain around sunset tomorrow, but
probability of this is too low (under 10%) to include
mentionable PoPs. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer
than today, in the low to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making
its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected
to pass during Wednesday`s peak heating, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less
likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with
PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with
upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/...

As of 1915 Monday...VFR flight cats persist across all of
eastern NC under warm southwesterly flow on the northern
periphery of high pressure centered off the southeastern coast
through most of the period. Focus for tonight is nocturnal
stratus as low levels continue to gradually moisten. If any
develops, most favored sites would be EWN and OAJ. Even here,
the reliable LAMP guidance doesn`t show any chance of sub- VFR
flight conditions higher than 5%. The only deterministic members
to show restrictions are the ARW and NAM, which historically
are too aggressive with showing stratus/low fog particularly in
southwesterly flow regimes. Opted to keep a VFR CIG forecast,
but trends will continue to be monitored. The only piece of
guidance that even mentioned fog over the last couple of days is
again highlighting potential for fog development for SWern
terminals (OAJ only TAF site). I have included a 6sm MIFG
prevailing group for the early morning hours with a TEMPO MVFR
VIS group. Potential exists for sub MVFR VIS but confidence is
way too low to include any mention of it explicitly in the TAFs.

Breezy southwesterly winds continue tomorrow with building cirri
as next mid-level wave gradually approaches the region, FEW-SCT
diurnal CU field ~FL050-060 possible ahead of the seabreeze
tomorrow afternoon.


LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An
approaching disturbance will bring some chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Quiet boating conditions in place this
afternoon over area waters as high pressure remains anchored to
our southeast. Regional observations show southwesterly winds of
10-15 kt with seas averaging 3 feet with periods of 10-11
seconds. Little change in these conditions are expected through
the period. Like yesterday, an increase in winds across the
northern waters and sounds with a tightening thermal gradient is
expected and a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible. This is
not expected to last long enough to warrant SCA. A similar
pattern is expected tomorrow, although for a broader swath of
near-shore waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC